Efficient strategies to assess yield stability in winter wheat.

KEY MESSAGE: Selecting contrasting environments allows decreasing phenotyping intensity but still maintaining high accuracy to assess yield stability. Improving yield stability of wheat varieties is important to cope with enhanced abiotic stresses caused by climate change. The objective of our study was to (1) develop and implement an improved heritability estimate to examine the required scale of phenotyping for assessing yield stability in wheat, (2) compare yield performance and yield stability of wheat hybrids and inbred lines, (3) investigate the association of agronomic traits with yield stability, and (4) explore the possibility of selecting subsets of environments allowing to portray large proportion of the variation of yield stability. Our study is based on phenotypic data from five series of official winter wheat registration trials in Germany each including 119-132 genotypes evaluated in up to 50 environments. Our findings suggested that phenotyping in at least 40 environments is required to reliably estimate yield stability to guarantee heritability estimates above 0.7. Contrasting the yield stability of hybrids versus lines revealed no significant differences. Absence of stable associations between yield stability and further agronomic traits suggested low potential of indirect selection to improve yield stability. Selecting posteriori contrasting environments based on the genotype-by-environment interaction effects allowed decreasing phenotyping intensity, but still maintaining high accuracy to assess yield stability. The huge potential of the developed strategy to select contrasting and informative environments has to be validated as a next step in an a priori scenario based on genotype-by-location interaction effects.