Genome-wide mapping and prediction suggests presence of local epistasis in a vast elite winter wheat populations adapted to Central Europe.

KEY MESSAGE: Genome-wide association mapping as well as marker- and haplotype-based genome-wide selection unraveled a complex genetic architecture of grain yield with absence of large effect QTL and presence of local epistatic effects. The genetic architecture of grain yield determines to a large extent the optimum design of genomic-assisted wheat breeding programs. The main goal of our study was to examine the potential and limitations to dissect the genetic architecture of grain yield in wheat using a large experimental data set. Our study was based on phenotypic information and genomic data of 13,901 SNPs of a diverse set of 3816 elite wheat lines adapted to Central Europe. We applied genome-wide association mapping based on experimental and simulated data sets and performed marker- and haplotype-based genomic prediction. Computer simulations revealed for our mapping population a high power to detect QTL, even if they individually explained only 2.5% of the genetic variation. Despite this, we found no stable marker-trait associations when validating in independent subsets. A two-dimensional scan for marker-marker interactions indicated presence of local epistasis which was further supported by improved prediction abilities when shifting from marker- to haplotype-based genome-wide prediction approaches. We observed that marker effects estimated using genome-wide prediction approaches strongly varied across years albeit resulting in high prediction abilities. Thus, our results suggested that the prediction accuracy of genomic selection in wheat is mainly driven by relatedness rather than by exploiting knowledge of the genetic architecture.