Jan Scott1,2, Steven Marwaha3, Aswin Ratheesh4,5, Iain Macmillan6, Alison R Yung7,8, Richard Morriss9, Ian B Hickie10, Andreas Bechdolf4,11,12. 1. Institute of Neuroscience, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK. 2. IPPN, King's College, London, UK. 3. Division of Health Sciences, Warwick Medical School, The University of Warwick, Coventry, UK. 4. Orygen, the National Centre of Excellence in Youth Mental Health, Parkville, Australia. 5. Centre for Youth Mental Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia. 6. Early Intervention in Psychosis Service, NTW NHS Trust, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK. 7. Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK. 8. Greater Manchester West NHS Mental Health Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK. 9. Institute of Mental Health, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK. 10. Brain and Mind Centre, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia. 11. Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany. 12. Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics, Vivantes Klinikum am Urban and Vivantes Klinikum im Friedrichshain, and Academic Hospital of Charity Medicine, Berlin, Germany.
Abstract
Background: A clinical and research challenge is to identify which depressed youth are at risk of "early transition to bipolar disorders (ET-BD)." This 2-part study (1) examines the clinical utility of previously reported BD at-risk (BAR) criteria in differentiating ET-BD cases from unipolar depression (UP) controls; and (2) estimates the Number Needed to Screen (NNS) for research and general psychiatry settings. Methods: Fifty cases with reliably ascertained, ET-BD I and II cases were matched for gender and birth year with 50 UP controls who did not develop BD over 2 years. We estimated the clinical utility for finding true cases and screening out non-cases for selected risk factors and their NNS. Using a convenience sample (N = 80), we estimated the NNS when adjustments were made to account for data missing from clinical case notes. Results: Sub-threshold mania, cyclothymia, family history of BD, atypical depression symptoms and probable antidepressant-emergent elation, occurred significantly more frequently in ET-BD youth. Each of these "BAR-Depression" criteria demonstrated clinical utility for screening out non-cases. Only cyclothymia demonstrated good utility for case finding in research settings; sub-threshold mania showed moderate utility. In the convenience sample, the NNS for each criterion ranged from ~4 to 7. Conclusions: Cyclothymia showed the optimum profile for case finding, screening and NNS in research settings. However, its presence or absence was only reported in 50% of case notes. Future studies of ET-BD instruments should distinguish which criteria have clinical utility for case finding vs screening.
Background: A clinical and research challenge is to identify which depressed youth are at risk of "early transition to bipolar disorders (ET-BD)." This 2-part study (1) examines the clinical utility of previously reported BD at-risk (BAR) criteria in differentiating ET-BD cases from unipolar depression (UP) controls; and (2) estimates the Number Needed to Screen (NNS) for research and general psychiatry settings. Methods: Fifty cases with reliably ascertained, ET-BD I and II cases were matched for gender and birth year with 50 UP controls who did not develop BD over 2 years. We estimated the clinical utility for finding true cases and screening out non-cases for selected risk factors and their NNS. Using a convenience sample (N = 80), we estimated the NNS when adjustments were made to account for data missing from clinical case notes. Results: Sub-threshold mania, cyclothymia, family history of BD, atypical depression symptoms and probable antidepressant-emergent elation, occurred significantly more frequently in ET-BD youth. Each of these "BAR-Depression" criteria demonstrated clinical utility for screening out non-cases. Only cyclothymia demonstrated good utility for case finding in research settings; sub-threshold mania showed moderate utility. In the convenience sample, the NNS for each criterion ranged from ~4 to 7. Conclusions: Cyclothymia showed the optimum profile for case finding, screening and NNS in research settings. However, its presence or absence was only reported in 50% of case notes. Future studies of ET-BD instruments should distinguish which criteria have clinical utility for case finding vs screening.
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