| Literature DB >> 27860387 |
Xiao-Hui Li1,2, Hui Chang1, Bing-Qing Xu1, Ya-Lan Tao1, Jin Gao3, Chen Chen1, Chen Qu1, Shu Zhou1, Song-Ran Liu1, Xiao-Hui Wang1, Wen-Wen Zhang1, Xin Yang1, Si-Lang Zhou2, Yun-Fei Xia1.
Abstract
Chronic inflammation plays an important role in tumor progression. The aim of this analysis was to evaluate whether inflammatory biomarkers such as the Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), the platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and the lymphocyte-monocyte ratio (LMR) could predict the prognosis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). In this analysis, pretreatment GPS, NLR, PLR, LMR of 388 patients who were diagnosed as nonmetastatic NPC and recruited prospectively in the 863 Program No. 2006AA02Z4B4 were assessed. Of those, the 249 cases enrolled between December 27th 2006 and July 31st 2011 were defined as the development set. The rest 139 cases enrolled between August 1st 2011 and July 31st 2013 were defined as the validation set. The variables above were analyzed in the development set, together with age, gender, Karnofsky performance score, T stage, and N stage, with respect to their impact on the disease-specific survival (DSS) through a univariate analysis. The candidate prognostic factors then underwent a multivariate analysis. A nomogram was established to predict the DSS, by involving the independent prognostic factors. Its predction capacity was evaluated through calculating Harrell's concordance index (C-index) in the validation set. After multivariate analysis for the development set, age (≤50 vs. >50 years old), T stage (T1-2 vs. T3-4), N stage (N0-1 vs. N2-3) and pretreatment GPS (0 vs. 1-2), NLR (≤2.5 vs. >2.5), LMR (≤2.35 vs. >2.35) were independent prognostic factors of DSS (P values were 0.002, 0.008, <0.001, 0.004, 0.018, and 0.004, respectively). A nomogram was established by involving all the factors above. Its C-index for predicting the DSS of the validation set was 0.734 (standard error 0.056). Pretreatment GPS, NLR, and LMR were independent prognostic factors of NPC. The nomogram based on them could be used to predict the DSS of NPC patients.Entities:
Keywords: Disease-specific survival; inflammatory biomarkers; nasopharyngeal carcinoma; nomogram; prediction
Mesh:
Year: 2016 PMID: 27860387 PMCID: PMC5269708 DOI: 10.1002/cam4.947
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Cancer Med ISSN: 2045-7634 Impact factor: 4.452
Figure 1The entire procedure of this analysis. A total of 388 patients from the 863 Program No. 2006AA02Z4B4 were eligible for this analysis: 249 cases with complete 5‐year follow‐up were allocated to the development set, and the rest 139 cases were allocated to the validation set. Data of the GPS, the NLR, the PLR, the LMR and other characteristics (KPS) were assessed for the patients of the development set. Possible prognostic factors were picked out by the univariate survival analysis. The multivariate survival analysis was then performed to screen out the independent prognostic factors. A nomogram enrolling independent prognostic factors was developed. Finally, its predictive accuracy was validated through calculation of its Harrell's concordance index (C‐index) on 3‐year disease‐specific survival in the validation set. GPS, Glasgow prognostic score; LMR, lymphocyte‐monocyte ratio; NLR, neutrophil‐lymphocyte ratio; PLR, platelet‐lymphocyte ratio; KPS, Karnofsky performance score.
Baseline clinical characteristics of the development set with different GPS, NLR, PLR or LMR
| Characteristics | Cases | GPS | NLR | PLR | LMR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0’ | 1–2’ | ≤2.5 | >2.5 | ≤166 | >166 | ≤2.35 | >2.35 | ||
| Gender |
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| Male | 184 | 156 | 28 | 113 | 71 | 142 | 42 | 57 | 127 |
| Female | 65 | 53 | 12 | 36 | 29 | 51 | 14 | 19 | 46 |
| Age |
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| ≤50 | 164 | 133 | 31 | 100 | 64 | 131 | 33 | 48 | 116 |
| >50 | 85 | 76 | 9 | 49 | 36 | 62 | 23 | 28 | 57 |
| KPS |
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| ≤80 | 54 | 43 | 11 | 32 | 22 | 37 | 17 | 18 | 36 |
| >80 | 195 | 166 | 29 | 117 | 78 | 156 | 39 | 58 | 137 |
| Clinical stage |
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| I–II | 32 | 28 | 4 | 23 | 9 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 28 |
| III–IV | 217 | 181 | 36 | 126 | 91 | 169 | 48 | 72 | 145 |
| T stage |
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| T1–2 | 65 | 55 | 10 | 41 | 24 | 52 | 13 | 8 | 57 |
| T3–4 | 184 | 154 | 30 | 108 | 76 | 141 | 43 | 68 | 116 |
| N stage |
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| N0–1 | 118 | 105 | 13 | 79 | 39 | 93 | 25 | 35 | 83 |
| N2–3 | 131 | 104 | 27 | 70 | 61 | 100 | 31 | 41 | 90 |
| IMRT |
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| No | 180 | 150 | 30 | 105 | 75 | 137 | 43 | 54 | 126 |
| Yes | 69 | 59 | 10 | 44 | 25 | 56 | 13 | 22 | 47 |
| Undifferentiated carcinoma |
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| No | 25 | 16 | 9 | 19 | 6 | 18 | 7 | 12 | 13 |
| Yes | 224 | 193 | 31 | 130 | 94 | 175 | 49 | 64 | 160 |
| CCT |
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| No | 13 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| Yes | 236 | 198 | 38 | 139 | 97 | 184 | 52 | 72 | 164 |
KPS, Karnofsky performance score; IMRT, intensity‐modulated radiotherapy; CCT, concurrent chemotherapy; GPS, Glasgow prognostic score; LMR, lymphocyte‐monocyte ratio; NLR, neutrophil‐lymphocyte ratio; PLR, platelet‐lymphocyte ratio.
Univariate and multivariate analysis on factors of the 5‐year DSS in the development set
| Characteristics | 5‐year DSS/% | Univariate analysis | Multivariate analysis | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR (95% CI) |
| HR (95% CI) |
| ||
| Gender | 0.548 | ||||
| Female | 78.8 | 1.000 | |||
| Male | 76.9 | 1.201 (0.662–2.178) | |||
| Age | 0.035 | 0.003 | |||
| ≤50 | 82.7 | 1.000 | 1.000 | ||
| >50 | 70.1 | 1.779 (1.043–3.035) | 2.484 (1.364–4.522) | ||
| KPS | 0.280 | ||||
| ≤80 | 74.1 | 1.000 | |||
| >80 | 79.5 | 0.715 (0.389–1.315) | |||
| T stage | 0.006 | 0.008 | |||
| T1–2 | 92.4 | 1.000 | 1.000 | ||
| T3–4 | 73.2 | 3.616 (1.440–9.077) | 3.618 (1.402–9.339) | ||
| N stage | 0.005 | 0.028 | |||
| N0–1 | 85.2 | 1.000 | 1.000 | ||
| N2–3 | 72.4 | 2.284 (1.282–4.067) | 1.995 (1.079–3.689) | ||
| GPS | <0.001 | 0.020 | |||
| 0 | 81.8 | 1.000 | 1.000 | ||
| 1–2 | 60.0 | 2.999 (1.667–5.396) | 2.362 (1.142–4.883) | ||
| NLR | <0.001 | 0.049 | |||
| ≤2.5 | 86.4 | 1.000 | 1.000 | ||
| >2.5 | 58.3 | 3.438 (2.008–5.888) | 1.939 (1.004–3.761) | ||
| PLR | 0.002 | 0.451 | |||
| ≤166 | 81.9 | 1.000 | 1.000 | ||
| >166 | 66.1 | 1.865 (1.067–3.262) | 1.225 (0.695–2.269) | ||
| LMR | <0.001 | 0.048 | |||
| ≤2.35 | 61.8 | 1.000 | 1.000 | ||
| >2.35 | 85.5 | 0.327 (0.191–0.559) | 0.547 (0.298–0.996) | ||
HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; KPS, Karnofsky performance score; GPS, Glasgow prognostic score; NLR, neutrophil‐lymphocyte ratio; PLR, platelet‐lymphocyte ratio; LMR, lymphocyte‐monocyte ratio; DSS, disease‐specific survival.
Figure 2The 5‐year DSS curves of the development set, grouped by the GPS, the NLR, the PLR, the LMR. (Panel A): survival curves of patients with different GPS. (Panel B): survival curves of patients with different NLR. (Panel C): survival curves of patients with different PLR. (Panel D): survival curves of patients with different LMR. GPS = 1–2’, NLR > 2.5, PLR > 166 and LMR ≤ 2.35 were statistically associated with poor 5‐year DSS (P values were <0.001, <0.001, 0.002 and <0.001, respectively). DSS, disease‐specific survival; GPS, Glasgow prognostic score; LMR, lymphocyte‐monocyte ratio; NLR, neutrophil‐lymphocyte ratio; PLR, platelet‐lymphocyte ratio.
Figure 3A nomogram predicts the disease‐specific survival (DSS) of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma. This nomogram was based on age, T stage, N stage, and inflammatory biomarkers such as the GPS, the NLR, the LMR. The total score of each patient was the sum of the points identified at the top of the scale for each factor, and was then identified on the total points scale to determine the probability of 1‐year, 3‐year, and 5‐year DSS. GPS, Glasgow prognostic score; LMR, lymphocyte‐monocyte ratio; NLR, neutrophil‐lymphocyte ratio.