Isaac I Bogoch1,2, Oliver J Brady3,4, Moritz U G Kraemer5, Matthew German6, Maria I Creatore6,7, Shannon Brent7, Alexander G Watts6, Simon I Hay8,9, Manisha A Kulkarni10, John S Brownstein11, Kamran Khan1,6. 1. Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada. 2. Divisions of Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada. 3. Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. 4. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. 5. Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group (SEEG), Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, UK. 6. Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada. 7. Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto. 8. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98121, USA. 9. Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom. 10. School of Epidemiology, Public Health and Preventive Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada. 11. Children's Hospital Boston, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: As the epidemic of Zika virus expands in the Americas, countries across Africa and the Asia-Pacific region are becoming increasingly susceptible to the importation and possible local spread of the virus. To support public health readiness, we aim to identify regions and times where the potential health, economic, and social effects from Zika virus are greatest, focusing on resource-limited countries in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. METHODS: Our model combined transportation network analysis, ecological modelling of mosquito occurrences, and vector competence for flavivirus transmission, using data from the International Air Transport Association, entomological observations from Zika's primary vector species, and climate conditions using WorldClim. We overlaid monthly flows of airline travellers arriving to Africa and the Asia-Pacific region from areas of the Americas suitable for year-round transmission of Zika virus with monthly maps of climatic suitability for mosquito-borne transmission of Zika virus within Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. FINDINGS: An estimated 2·6 billion people live in areas of Africa and the Asia-Pacific region where the presence of competent mosquito vectors and suitable climatic conditions could support local transmission of Zika virus. Countries with large volumes of travellers arriving from Zika virus-affected areas of the Americas and large populations at risk of mosquito-borne Zika virus infection include India (67 422 travellers arriving per year; 1·2 billion residents in potential Zika transmission areas), China (238 415 travellers; 242 million residents), Indonesia (13 865 travellers; 197 million residents), Philippines (35 635 travellers; 70 million residents), and Thailand (29 241 travellers; 59 million residents). INTERPRETATION: Many countries across Africa and the Asia-Pacific region are vulnerable to Zika virus. Strategic use of available health and human resources is essential to prevent or mitigate the health, economic, and social consequences of Zika virus, especially in resource-limited countries. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
BACKGROUND: As the epidemic of Zika virus expands in the Americas, countries across Africa and the Asia-Pacific region are becoming increasingly susceptible to the importation and possible local spread of the virus. To support public health readiness, we aim to identify regions and times where the potential health, economic, and social effects from Zika virus are greatest, focusing on resource-limited countries in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. METHODS: Our model combined transportation network analysis, ecological modelling of mosquito occurrences, and vector competence for flavivirus transmission, using data from the International Air Transport Association, entomological observations from Zika's primary vector species, and climate conditions using WorldClim. We overlaid monthly flows of airline travellers arriving to Africa and the Asia-Pacific region from areas of the Americas suitable for year-round transmission of Zika virus with monthly maps of climatic suitability for mosquito-borne transmission of Zika virus within Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. FINDINGS: An estimated 2·6 billion people live in areas of Africa and the Asia-Pacific region where the presence of competent mosquito vectors and suitable climatic conditions could support local transmission of Zika virus. Countries with large volumes of travellers arriving from Zika virus-affected areas of the Americas and large populations at risk of mosquito-borne Zika virus infection include India (67 422 travellers arriving per year; 1·2 billion residents in potential Zika transmission areas), China (238 415 travellers; 242 million residents), Indonesia (13 865 travellers; 197 million residents), Philippines (35 635 travellers; 70 million residents), and Thailand (29 241 travellers; 59 million residents). INTERPRETATION: Many countries across Africa and the Asia-Pacific region are vulnerable to Zika virus. Strategic use of available health and human resources is essential to prevent or mitigate the health, economic, and social consequences of Zika virus, especially in resource-limited countries. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Authors: Patrícia Brasil; José P Pereira; M Elisabeth Moreira; Rita M Ribeiro Nogueira; Luana Damasceno; Mayumi Wakimoto; Renata S Rabello; Stephanie G Valderramos; Umme-Aiman Halai; Tania S Salles; Andrea A Zin; Dafne Horovitz; Pedro Daltro; Marcia Boechat; Claudia Raja Gabaglia; Patrícia Carvalho de Sequeira; José H Pilotto; Raquel Medialdea-Carrera; Denise Cotrim da Cunha; Liege M Abreu de Carvalho; Marcos Pone; André Machado Siqueira; Guilherme A Calvet; Ana E Rodrigues Baião; Elizabeth S Neves; Paulo R Nassar de Carvalho; Renata H Hasue; Peter B Marschik; Christa Einspieler; Carla Janzen; James D Cherry; Ana M Bispo de Filippis; Karin Nielsen-Saines Journal: N Engl J Med Date: 2016-03-04 Impact factor: 91.245
Authors: Marcio Roberto Teixeira Nunes; Nuno Rodrigues Faria; Janaina Mota de Vasconcelos; Nick Golding; Moritz U G Kraemer; Layanna Freitas de Oliveira; Raimunda do Socorro da Silva Azevedo; Daisy Elaine Andrade da Silva; Eliana Vieira Pinto da Silva; Sandro Patroca da Silva; Valéria Lima Carvalho; Giovanini Evelim Coelho; Ana Cecília Ribeiro Cruz; Sueli Guerreiro Rodrigues; Joao Lídio da Silva Gonçalves Vianez; Bruno Tardelli Diniz Nunes; Jedson Ferreira Cardoso; Robert B Tesh; Simon I Hay; Oliver G Pybus; Pedro Fernando da Costa Vasconcelos Journal: BMC Med Date: 2015-04-30 Impact factor: 8.775
Authors: Moritz U G Kraemer; Marianne E Sinka; Kirsten A Duda; Adrian Mylne; Freya M Shearer; Oliver J Brady; Jane P Messina; Christopher M Barker; Chester G Moore; Roberta G Carvalho; Giovanini E Coelho; Wim Van Bortel; Guy Hendrickx; Francis Schaffner; G R William Wint; Iqbal R F Elyazar; Hwa-Jen Teng; Simon I Hay Journal: Sci Data Date: 2015-07-07 Impact factor: 6.444
Authors: Oliver J Brady; Nick Golding; David M Pigott; Moritz U G Kraemer; Jane P Messina; Robert C Reiner; Thomas W Scott; David L Smith; Peter W Gething; Simon I Hay Journal: Parasit Vectors Date: 2014-07-22 Impact factor: 3.876
Authors: Cyril Caminade; Joanne Turner; Soeren Metelmann; Jenny C Hesson; Marcus S C Blagrove; Tom Solomon; Andrew P Morse; Matthew Baylis Journal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Date: 2016-12-19 Impact factor: 11.205
Authors: Kristina M Angelo; Rhett J Stoney; Gaelle Brun-Cottan; Karin Leder; Martin P Grobusch; Natasha Hochberg; Susan Kuhn; Emmanuel Bottieau; Patricia Schlagenhauf; Lin Chen; Noreen A Hynes; Cecilia Perret Perez; Frank P Mockenhaupt; Israel Molina; Clara Crespillo-Andújar; Denis Malvy; Eric Caumes; Pierre Plourde; Marc Shaw; Anne E McCarthy; Nancy Piper-Jenks; Bradley A Connor; Davidson H Hamer; Annelies Wilder-Smith Journal: J Travel Med Date: 2020-07-14 Impact factor: 8.490
Authors: Gladys Gutiérrez-Bugallo; Luis Augusto Piedra; Magdalena Rodriguez; Juan A Bisset; Ricardo Lourenço-de-Oliveira; Scott C Weaver; Nikos Vasilakis; Anubis Vega-Rúa Journal: Nat Ecol Evol Date: 2019-03-18 Impact factor: 15.460
Authors: N R Faria; J Quick; I M Claro; J Thézé; J G de Jesus; M Giovanetti; M U G Kraemer; S C Hill; A Black; A C da Costa; L C Franco; S P Silva; C-H Wu; J Raghwani; S Cauchemez; L du Plessis; M P Verotti; W K de Oliveira; E H Carmo; G E Coelho; A C F S Santelli; L C Vinhal; C M Henriques; J T Simpson; M Loose; K G Andersen; N D Grubaugh; S Somasekar; C Y Chiu; J E Muñoz-Medina; C R Gonzalez-Bonilla; C F Arias; L L Lewis-Ximenez; S A Baylis; A O Chieppe; S F Aguiar; C A Fernandes; P S Lemos; B L S Nascimento; H A O Monteiro; I C Siqueira; M G de Queiroz; T R de Souza; J F Bezerra; M R Lemos; G F Pereira; D Loudal; L C Moura; R Dhalia; R F França; T Magalhães; E T Marques; T Jaenisch; G L Wallau; M C de Lima; V Nascimento; E M de Cerqueira; M M de Lima; D L Mascarenhas; J P Moura Neto; A S Levin; T R Tozetto-Mendoza; S N Fonseca; M C Mendes-Correa; F P Milagres; A Segurado; E C Holmes; A Rambaut; T Bedford; M R T Nunes; E C Sabino; L C J Alcantara; N J Loman; O G Pybus Journal: Nature Date: 2017-05-24 Impact factor: 49.962
Authors: José Lourenço; Maricelia Maia de Lima; Nuno Rodrigues Faria; Andrew Walker; Moritz Ug Kraemer; Christian Julian Villabona-Arenas; Ben Lambert; Erenilde Marques de Cerqueira; Oliver G Pybus; Luiz Cj Alcantara; Mario Recker Journal: Elife Date: 2017-09-09 Impact factor: 8.140