Corruption, development and governance indicators predict invasive species risk from trade.

Invasive species have an enormous global impact, with international trade being the leading pathway for their introduction. Current multinational trade deals under negotiation will dramatically change trading partnerships and pathways. These changes have considerable potential to influence biological invasions and global biodiversity. Using a database of 47 328 interceptions spanning 10 years, we demonstrate how development and governance socio-economic indicators of trading partners can predict exotic species interceptions. For import pathways associated with vegetable material, a significantly higher risk of exotic species interceptions was associated with countries that are poorly regulated, have more forest cover and have surprisingly low corruption. Corruption and indicators such as political stability or adherence to rule of law were important in vehicle or timber import pathways. These results will be of considerable value to policy makers, primarily by shifting quarantine procedures to focus on countries of high risk based on their socio-economic status. Further, using New Zealand as an example, we demonstrate how a ninefold reduction in incursions could be achieved if socio-economic indicators were used to select trade partners. International trade deals that ignore governance and development indicators may facilitate introductions and biodiversity loss. Development and governance within countries clearly have biodiversity implications beyond borders.