BACKGROUND: Estimating or scoring the risk of post-operative pancreatic fistula (POPF) may help with selection of high-risk patients and individualized patient consent. However, there are no simple and reliable preoperative predictors of POPF used in daily clinical practice. METHODS: We investigated the utility of body mass index-to-prognostic nutritional index (BMI/PNI) ratio as a preoperative marker to predict the development of POPF in 87 patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy. RESULTS: The overall incidence of clinical (grade B/C) POPF was 17% (15 of 87 patients). Among various pre-, intra-, and post-operative variables analyzed, higher BMI and lower PNI were identified as independent predictors for POPF by multivariate analysis. We therefore investigated BMI/PNI ratio as a preoperative predictor for POPF. BMI/PNI ratio was significantly higher in patients with POPF than in those without POPF (0.54 vs. 0.45, P=0.0007). A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis demonstrated a fair capability of BMI/PNI ratio to predict the occurrence of POPF (area under the ROC curve 0.781). With a cut-off value of 0.5, the sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic accuracy of BMI/PNI ratio to predict POPF was 73%, 74%, and 74%, respectively. In particular, when restricted to a subgroup of elderly (≥75 years old) male patients, the sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic accuracy of BMI/PNI ratio was 100%, 100%, and 100%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The BMI/PNI ratio is a simple preoperative marker to predict the occurrence of POPF after pancreaticoduodenectomy.
BACKGROUND: Estimating or scoring the risk of post-operative pancreatic fistula (POPF) may help with selection of high-risk patients and individualized patient consent. However, there are no simple and reliable preoperative predictors of POPF used in daily clinical practice. METHODS: We investigated the utility of body mass index-to-prognostic nutritional index (BMI/PNI) ratio as a preoperative marker to predict the development of POPF in 87 patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy. RESULTS: The overall incidence of clinical (grade B/C) POPF was 17% (15 of 87 patients). Among various pre-, intra-, and post-operative variables analyzed, higher BMI and lower PNI were identified as independent predictors for POPF by multivariate analysis. We therefore investigated BMI/PNI ratio as a preoperative predictor for POPF. BMI/PNI ratio was significantly higher in patients with POPF than in those without POPF (0.54 vs. 0.45, P=0.0007). A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis demonstrated a fair capability of BMI/PNI ratio to predict the occurrence of POPF (area under the ROC curve 0.781). With a cut-off value of 0.5, the sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic accuracy of BMI/PNI ratio to predict POPF was 73%, 74%, and 74%, respectively. In particular, when restricted to a subgroup of elderly (≥75 years old) male patients, the sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic accuracy of BMI/PNI ratio was 100%, 100%, and 100%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The BMI/PNI ratio is a simple preoperative marker to predict the occurrence of POPF after pancreaticoduodenectomy.
Entities:
Keywords:
Pancreaticoduodenectomy; body mass index (BMI); pancreatic fistula; prognostic nutrition index (PNI); risk factor
Authors: Keith J Roberts; Robert P Sutcliffe; Ravi Marudanayagam; James Hodson; John Isaac; Paolo Muiesan; Alex Navarro; Krashna Patel; Asif Jah; Sara Napetti; Anya Adair; Stefanos Lazaridis; Andreas Prachalias; Guy Shingler; Bilal Al-Sarireh; Roland Storey; Andrew M Smith; Nehal Shah; Guiseppe Fusai; Jamil Ahmed; Mohammad Abu Hilal; Darius F Mirza Journal: Ann Surg Date: 2015-06 Impact factor: 12.969