S Triunfo1,2, F Crovetto1,2,3, E Scazzocchio4, M Parra-Saavedra5, E Gratacos1,2, F Figueras1,2. 1. Fetal i+D Fetal Medicine Research Center, BCNatal - Barcelona Center for Maternal-Fetal and Neonatal Medicine (Hospital Clínic and Hospital Sant Joan de Deu), IDIBAPS, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain. 2. Centre for Biomedical Research on Rare Diseases (CIBER-ER), Valencia, Spain. 3. Fondazione Cà Granda, Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Dipartimento Ostetricia e Ginecologia, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy. 4. Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Medicine Department, Institut Universitari Dexeus, Barcelona, Spain. 5. Maternal-Fetal Unit, CEDIFETAL, Centro de Diagnóstico de Ultrasonido e Imágenes, CEDIUL, Barranquilla, Colombia.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the use of third-trimester ultrasound screening for late fetal growth restriction (FGR) on a contingent basis, according to risk accrued in the second trimester, in an unselected population. METHODS: Maternal characteristics, fetal biometry and second-trimester uterine artery (UtA) Doppler were included in logistic regression analysis to estimate risk for late FGR (birth weight < 3(rd) percentile, or 3(rd) -10(th) percentile plus abnormal cerebroplacental ratio or UtA Doppler, with delivery ≥ 34 weeks). Based on the second-trimester risk, strategies for performing contingent third-trimester ultrasound examinations in 10%, 25% or 50% of the cohort were tested against a strategy of routine ultrasound scanning in the entire population at 32 + 0 to 33 + 6 weeks. RESULTS: Models were constructed based on 1393 patients and validated in 1303 patients, including 73 (5.2%) and 82 late FGR (6.3%) cases, respectively. At the second-trimester scan, the a-posteriori second-trimester risk (a-posteriori first-trimester risk (baseline a-priori risk and mean arterial blood pressure) combined with second-trimester abdominal circumference and UtA Doppler) yielded an area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC) of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.74-0.87) (detection rate (DR), 43.1% for a 10% false-positive rate (FPR)). The combination of a-posteriori second-trimester risk plus third-trimester estimated fetal weight (full model) yielded an AUC of 0.92 (95% CI, 0.88-0.96) (DR, 74% for a 10% FPR). Subjecting 10%, 25% or 50% of the study population to third-trimester ultrasound, based on a-posteriori second-trimester risk, gave AUCs of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.75-0.88), 0.84 (95% CI, 0.78-0.91) and 0.89 (95% CI, 0.84-0.94), respectively. Only the 50% contingent model proved statistically equivalent to performing routine third-trimester ultrasound scans (AUC, 0.92 (95% CI, 0.88-0.96), P = 0.11). CONCLUSION: A strategy of selecting 50% of the study population to undergo third-trimester ultrasound examination, based on accrued risk in the second trimester, proved equivalent to routine third-trimester ultrasound scanning in predicting late FGR.
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the use of third-trimester ultrasound screening for late fetal growth restriction (FGR) on a contingent basis, according to risk accrued in the second trimester, in an unselected population. METHODS: Maternal characteristics, fetal biometry and second-trimester uterine artery (UtA) Doppler were included in logistic regression analysis to estimate risk for late FGR (birth weight < 3(rd) percentile, or 3(rd) -10(th) percentile plus abnormal cerebroplacental ratio or UtA Doppler, with delivery ≥ 34 weeks). Based on the second-trimester risk, strategies for performing contingent third-trimester ultrasound examinations in 10%, 25% or 50% of the cohort were tested against a strategy of routine ultrasound scanning in the entire population at 32 + 0 to 33 + 6 weeks. RESULTS: Models were constructed based on 1393 patients and validated in 1303 patients, including 73 (5.2%) and 82 late FGR (6.3%) cases, respectively. At the second-trimester scan, the a-posteriori second-trimester risk (a-posteriori first-trimester risk (baseline a-priori risk and mean arterial blood pressure) combined with second-trimester abdominal circumference and UtA Doppler) yielded an area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC) of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.74-0.87) (detection rate (DR), 43.1% for a 10% false-positive rate (FPR)). The combination of a-posteriori second-trimester risk plus third-trimester estimated fetal weight (full model) yielded an AUC of 0.92 (95% CI, 0.88-0.96) (DR, 74% for a 10% FPR). Subjecting 10%, 25% or 50% of the study population to third-trimester ultrasound, based on a-posteriori second-trimester risk, gave AUCs of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.75-0.88), 0.84 (95% CI, 0.78-0.91) and 0.89 (95% CI, 0.84-0.94), respectively. Only the 50% contingent model proved statistically equivalent to performing routine third-trimester ultrasound scans (AUC, 0.92 (95% CI, 0.88-0.96), P = 0.11). CONCLUSION: A strategy of selecting 50% of the study population to undergo third-trimester ultrasound examination, based on accrued risk in the second trimester, proved equivalent to routine third-trimester ultrasound scanning in predicting late FGR.
Authors: Lesley M E McCowan; John M D Thompson; Rennae S Taylor; Philip N Baker; Robyn A North; Lucilla Poston; Claire T Roberts; Nigel A B Simpson; James J Walker; Jenny Myers; Louise C Kenny Journal: PLoS One Date: 2017-01-09 Impact factor: 3.240
Authors: Ângela R L Nader; Paulo Zielinsky; Alexandre Antonio Naujorks; Luiz Henrique S Nicoloso; Antonio Luiz Piccoli Junior; Natássia Miranda Sulis; Luiza Ferreira van der Sand; Victoria de Bittencourt Antunes; Gabriela Dos Santos Marinho; Fernanda Greinert Dos Santos; Natan Pereira Gosmann; Eduardo Becker Júnior; Renato Frajndlich; Tamara Beherens; Marcelo Brandão da Silva; Carolina Barbisan; Stefano Busato; Mauro Lopes; Caroline Klein Journal: Obstet Gynecol Int Date: 2018-01-17