Complex relationships between species niches and environmental heterogeneity affect species co-occurrence patterns in modelled and real communities.

Species co-occurrence analysis is commonly used to assess how interspecific interactions dictate community assembly. Non-random co-occurrences, however, may also emerge from niche differences as well as environmental heterogeneity. The relationships between species co-occurrence patterns, environmental heterogeneity and species niches are not fully understood, due to complex interactions among them. To analyse the relationships among these patterns and processes, I developed synthetic community models and analysed a large dataset of tree species across the conterminous United States. Niche overlap and environmental heterogeneity had significant and contrasting effects on species co-occurrence patterns, in both modelled and real communities. Niche breadth, in turn, affected the effect sizes of both variables on species co-occurrence patterns. The effect of niche breadth on the relationship between co-occurrence and niche overlap was markedly consistent between modelled and real communities, while its effect on the relationship between co-occurrence and environmental heterogeneity was mostly consistent between real and modelled data. The results of this analysis highlight the complex and interactive effects of species niche overlap, niche breadth and environmental heterogeneity on species co-occurrence patterns. Therefore, inferring ecological processes from co-occurrence patterns without accounting for these fundamental characteristics of species and environments may lead to biased conclusions.