| Literature DB >> 26193480 |
Yimer Wasihun Kifle1, Nele Goeyvaerts1, Kim Van Kerckhove2, Lander Willem3, Adam Kucharski4, Christel Faes2, Herwig Leirs5, Niel Hens1, Philippe Beutels6.
Abstract
Many human infectious diseases originate from animals or are transmitted through animal vectors. We aimed to identify factors that are predictive of ownership and touching of animals, assess whether animal ownership influences social contact behavior, and estimate the probability of a major zoonotic outbreak should a transmissible influenza-like pathogen be present in animals, all in the setting of a densely populated European country. A diary-based social contact survey (n = 1768) was conducted in Flanders, Belgium, from September 2010 until February 2011. Many participants touched pets (46%), poultry (2%) or livestock (2%) on a randomly assigned day, and a large proportion of participants owned such animals (51%, 15% and 5%, respectively). Logistic regression models indicated that larger households are more likely to own an animal and, unsurprisingly, that animal owners are more likely to touch animals. We observed a significant effect of age on animal ownership and touching. The total number of social contacts during a randomly assigned day was modeled using weighted-negative binomial regression. Apart from age, household size and day type (weekend versus weekday and regular versus holiday period), animal ownership was positively associated with the total number of social contacts during the weekend. Assuming that animal ownership and/or touching are at-risk events, we demonstrate a method to estimate the outbreak potential of zoonoses. We show that in Belgium animal-human interactions involving young children (0-9 years) and adults (25-54 years) have the highest potential to cause a major zoonotic outbreak.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2015 PMID: 26193480 PMCID: PMC4508096 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0133461
Source DB: PubMed Journal: PLoS One ISSN: 1932-6203 Impact factor: 3.240
Number and proportion of participants who reported owning and touching pets (cats, dogs, fish), livestock (horses, sheep, cows or pigs), poultry (chicken, turkeys, pigeons) and other animals* in Flanders, Belgium, 2010–2011(n = 1768).
| Owning (n = 1768) | Touching (n = 1768) | |
|---|---|---|
| Pets | 905 (51.19%) | 812 (45.93%) |
| Cats | 503 (28.45%) | 450 (25.45%) |
| Dogs | 437 (24.72%) | 491 (27.77%) |
| Fish | 267 (15.05%) | 6 (0.34%) |
| Livestock | 82 (4.64%) | 45 (2.55%) |
| Horses | 53 (3.00%) | 32 (1.81%) |
| Sheep | 21 (1.19%) | 6 (0.34%) |
| Cows | 18 (1.02%) | 10 (0.56%) |
| Pigs | 9 (0.51%) | 1 (0.06%) |
| Poultry | 272 (15.38%) | 38 (2.15%) |
| Chickens | 264 (14.93%) | 29 (1.64%) |
| Pigeons | 23 (1.30%) | 10 (0.56%) |
| Turkeys | 5 (0.28%) | 0 (0.00%) |
*Out of total participants, 326 (18.44%) and 117 (6.62%) participants owned/touched other animals.
Fig 1The probability of a human-transmissible pathogen causing a major outbreak in each age group, with owning of pets, livestock and poultry as exposure of pathogen spillover (assuming realistic—heterogeneously distributed—contacts by age).
Fig 2The probability of a human-transmissible pathogen causing a major outbreak in each age group, with touching of pets, livestock and poultry as exposure of pathogen spillover (assuming realistic—heterogeneously distributed—contacts by age).
Multiple-logistic regression model for animal ownership in Flanders, Belgium, 2010–2011 (n = 1756).
| Category | Sample size | Parameter estimates (SE†) | OR | 95% CI† of OR | P value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
| ||||
| 0–5 years | 174 | 1.00 | |||
| 6–11 years | 127 | 0.88 (0.27) | 2.41 | [1.43, 4.06] | |
| 12–17 years | 79 | 0.72 (0.30) | 2.05 | [1.13, 3.72] | |
| 18–44 years | 621 | 0.59 (0.18) | 1.81 | [1.27, 2.60] | |
| 45–64 years | 468 | 0.67 (0.20) | 1.95 | [1.31, 2.88] | |
| 65+ years | 287 | -0.31 (0.32) | 0.73 | [0.39, 1.36] | |
|
|
| ||||
| 1 | 98 | 1.00 | |||
| 2 | 312 | 0.78 (0.24) | 2.19 | [1.38, 3.48] | |
| 3 | 328 | 1.23 (0.24) | 3.44 | [2.14, 5.52] | |
| 4 | 439 | 1.44 (0.24) | 4.21 | [2.62, 6.74] | |
| ≥5 | 218 | 1.48 (0.27) | 4.41 | [2.60, 7.48] | |
| Missing | 361 | 0.58 (0.31) | 1.78 | [0.97, 3.27] |
*Reference Category.
†OR = Odds Ratio, SE = Standard Error and CI = Confidence Interval.
Multiple-logistic regression model for animal touching in Flanders, Belgium, 2010–2011 (n = 1722).
| Covariate | Sample size | Parameter estimate (SE | OR | 95% CI | P value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
| ||||
| 0–5 years | 170 | 1.00 | |||
| 6–11 years | 125 | -0.21 (0.30) | 0.81 | [0.45, 1.45] | |
| 12–17 years | 79 | 0.18 (0.35) | 1.19 | [0.60, 2.38] | |
| 18–44 years | 615 | 0.76 (0.25) | 2.15 | [1.32, 3.47] | |
| 45–64 years | 456 | 0.90 (0.26) | 2.45 | [1.47, 4.10] | |
| 65+ years | 277 | 0.03 (0.31) | 1.03 | [0.56, 1.88] | |
|
|
| ||||
| Owner | 1037 | 1.00 | |||
| Not owner | 685 | -2.71 (0.43) | 0.07 | [0.03, 0.15] | |
|
|
| ||||
| 6–11 years: Not owner | 28 | 0.75 (0.69) | 2.11 | [0.55, 8.11] | |
| 12–17 years: Not owner | 20 | 0.79 (0.73) | 2.20 | [0.53, 9.21] | |
| 18–44 years: Not owner | 212 | -0.39 (0.49) | 0.68 | [0.26, 1.76] | |
| 45–64 years: Not owner | 166 | -0.94 (0.52) | 0.39 | [0.14, 1.09] | |
| 65+ years: Not owner | 188 | -0.34 (0.55) | 0.71 | [0.24, 2.10] | |
*Reference Category.
†We included animal ownership as a covariate.
‡OR = Odds Ratio, SE = Standard Error and CI = Confidence Interval.
Weighted-negative binomial regression for the total number of contacts in Flanders, Belgium, 2010–2011 (n = 1742).
| Covariate | Sample size | Median (IQR | Parameter estimates (SE | RNC | 95% CI | P-value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
| |||||
| 0–5 years | 174 | 10.00 (11.00) | 1.00 | |||
| 6–11 years | 127 | 18.00 (20.00) | 0.56 (0.18) | 1.76 | [1.24, 2.51] | |
| 12–17 years | 79 | 15.00 (19.50) | 0.47 (0.18) | 1.61 | [1.13, 2.30] | |
| 18–44 years | 621 | 11.00 (11.00) | 0.58 (0.14) | 1.79 | [1.37, 2.33] | |
| 45–64 years | 466 | 11.00 (10.00) | 0.59 (0.14) | 1.80 | [1.35, 2.37] | |
| 65+ years | 275 | 7.00 (9.50) | 0.68 (0.18) | 1.98 | [1.38, 2.84] | |
|
|
| |||||
| 1 | 98 | 8.00 (10.00) | 1.00 | |||
| 2 | 312 | 10.00 (10.00) | 0.15 (0.08) | 1.17 | [1.00, 1.35] | |
| 3 | 328 | 11.00 (11.00) | 0.21 (0.08) | 1.24 | [1.06, 1.44] | |
| 4 | 439 | 13.00 (12.00) | 0.29 (0.08) | 1.34 | [1.16, 1.56] | |
| ≥5 | 218 | 14.00 (15.00) | 0.39 (0.08) | 1.48 | [1.26, 1.74] | |
| Missing | 347 | 7.00 (10.00) | 0.03 (0.10) | 1.04 | [0.84, 1.27] | |
|
|
| |||||
| Owner | 1042 | 11.00 (12.00) | 1.00 | |||
| Not owner | 700 | 10.00 (11.00) | -0.24 (0.07) | 0.79 | [0.68, 0.91] | |
|
|
| |||||
| Female | 930 | 11.00 (12.00) | 1.00 | |||
| Male | 812 | 11.00 (11.00) | 0.05 (0.06) | 1.05 | [0.92, 1.19] | |
|
|
| |||||
| Antwerp | 487 | 11.00 (11.00) | 1.00 | |||
| Limburg | 264 | 11.00 (13.25) | 0.18 (0.07) | 1.20 | [1.04, 1.39] | |
| East Flanders | 407 | 10.00 (11.00) | 0.05 (0.06) | 1.05 | [0.93, 1.19] | |
| Flemish Brabant | 257 | 10.00 (13.00) | 0.20 (0.07) | 1.22 | [1.05, 1.41] | |
| West Flanders | 327 | 11.00 (10.00) | 0.14 (0.07) | 1.15 | [1.00, 1.32] | |
|
|
| |||||
| Weekend | 419 | 10.00 (10.00) | 1.00 | |||
| Weekday | 1323 | 11.00 (12.00) | 0.62 (0.15) | 1.85 | [1.37, 2.48] | |
|
|
| |||||
| Regular period | 1632 | 11.00 (12.00) | 1.00 | |||
| Holiday period | 110 | 8.00 (9.00) | -0.20 (0.07) | 0.82 | [0.71, 0.94] | |
|
|
| |||||
| 6–11 years: Weekday | 96 | 20.00 (23.00) | -0.28 (0.21) | 0.75 | [0.50, 1.13] | |
| 12–17 years: Weekday | 58 | 18.50 (20.00) | -0.20 (0.21) | 0.82 | [0.54, 1.24] | |
| 18–44 years: Weekday | 466 | 12.00 (11.00) | -0.69 (0.16) | 0.50 | [0.37, 0.69] | |
| 45–64 years: Weekday | 358 | 11.00 (11.00) | -0.76 (0.16) | 0.47 | [0.34, 0.65] | |
| 65+ years: Weekday | 221 | 7.00 (9.00) | -1.13 (0.18) | 0.32 | [0.22, 0.46] | |
|
|
| |||||
| Limburg: Male | 124 | 10.00 (10.75) | 0.04 (0.11) | 1.04 | [0.84, 1.29] | |
| East Flanders: Male | 176 | 11.00 (11.50) | -0.02 (0.10) | 0.98 | [0.81, 1.18] | |
| Flemish-Brabant: Male | 121 | 14.00 (13.00) | -0.32 (0.11) | 0.72 | [0.58, 0.90] | |
| West Flanders: Male | 171 | 15.00 (14.00) | -0.09 (0.10) | 0.91 | [0.75, 1.11] | |
|
|
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| Not an owner: Weekday | 530 | 10.50 (11.00) | 0.26 (0.08) | 1.30 | [1.09, 1.53] | |
| Dispersion = 2.43 (SE = 0.10), 95% CI [2.24, 2.62] | ||||||
*Reference Category.
†We included animal ownership as a covariate.
‡We excluded 14 observations with missing provinces because of not being enough for estimation.
§IQR = Inter-quartile range, RNC = Relative Number of Contact, SE = Standard Error and CI = Confidence Interval.