Developing a job-exposure matrix with exposure uncertainty from expert elicitation and data modeling.

Job exposure matrices (JEMs) are tools used to classify exposures for job titles based on general job tasks in the absence of individual level data. However, exposure uncertainty due to variations in worker practices, job conditions, and the quality of data has never been quantified systematically in a JEM. We describe a methodology for creating a JEM which defines occupational exposures on a continuous scale and utilizes elicitation methods to quantify exposure uncertainty by assigning exposures probability distributions with parameters determined through expert involvement. Experts use their knowledge to develop mathematical models using related exposure surrogate data in the absence of available occupational level data and to adjust model output against other similar occupations. Formal expert elicitation methods provided a consistent, efficient process to incorporate expert judgment into a large, consensus-based JEM. A population-based electric shock JEM was created using these methods, allowing for transparent estimates of exposure.