| Literature DB >> 25734570 |
Lea Ellwardt1, Theo van Tilburg2, Marja Aartsen2, Rafael Wittek3, Nardi Steverink4.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Research on aging has consistently demonstrated an increased chance of survival for older adults who are integrated into rich networks of social relationships. Theoretical explanations state that personal networks offer indirect psychosocial and direct physiological pathways. We investigate whether effects on and pathways to mortality risk differ between functional and structural characteristics of the personal network. The objective is to inquire which personal network characteristics are the best predictors of mortality risk after adjustment for mental, cognitive and physical health. METHODS ANDEntities:
Mesh:
Year: 2015 PMID: 25734570 PMCID: PMC4348168 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0116731
Source DB: PubMed Journal: PLoS One ISSN: 1932-6203 Impact factor: 3.240
Life-table of participants.
| Period | Number | Survival | |||||
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| Start | End | Eligible | Included | Deaths | Lost to follow-up | Rate | 95% CI |
| 1992/3 | 1995/6 | 3,069 | 2,911 | 350 | 317 | 0.873 | 0.860–0.885 |
| 1995/6 | 1998/9 | 2,537 | 2,244 | 256 | 249 | 0.767 | 0.751–0.783 |
| 1998/9 | 2001/2 | 2,039 | 1,739 | 184 | 194 | 0.681 | 0.662–0.700 |
| 2001/2 | 2005/6 | 1,650 | 1,361 | 202 | 198 | 0.572 | 0.551–0.593 |
| 2005/6 | 2008/9 | 1,226 | 961 | 101 | 114 | 0.508 | 0.486–0.530 |
| 2008/9 | 2011/2 | 960 | 746 | 100 | 119 | 0.434 | 0.411–0.457 |
| 2011/2 | 1–11–2013 | 598 | 527 | 28 | n/a | 0.391 | 0.365–0.416 |
Notes.
a Confirmed eligible when information on vital status was available.
Characteristics of male and female study participants at baseline .
| Characteristic | All participants | Men | Women |
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| Age in years | 70.36 | 8.69 | 70.54 | 8.70 | 70.19 | 8.67 | 1.09 | 0.27 |
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| Emotional loneliness | 1.13 | 1.66 | 0.92 | 1.48 | 1.33 | 1.80 | 6.76 | 0.00 |
| Social loneliness | 0.92 | 1.33 | 0.99 | 1.36 | 0.86 | 1.31 | 2.76 | 0.01 |
| Emotional support | 1.71 | 0.77 | 1.59 | 0.80 | 1.82 | 0.72 | 8.40 | 0.00 |
| Instrumental support | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.82 | 0.74 | 0.78 | 0.71 | 1.67 | 0.09 |
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| Living alone | 0.35 | — | 0.21 | — | 0.49 | — | 233.35 | 0.00 |
| Contact frequency | 5.69 | 0.91 | 5.68 | 0.97 | 5.68 | 0.91 | 0.16 | 0.87 |
| Network size | 13.86 | 8.25 | 13.76 | 8.33 | 13.95 | 8.17 | 0.63 | 0.53 |
| Network diversity | 4.52 | 1.84 | 4.43 | 1.83 | 4.60 | 1.85 | 2.55 | 0.01 |
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| Depression | 7.74 | 7.59 | 6.40 | 6.58 | 9.01 | 8.25 | 9.39 | 0.00 |
| Anxiety | 2.57 | 3.32 | 2.06 | 2.87 | 3.04 | 3.64 | 8.00 | 0.00 |
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| MMSE | 27.06 | 2.69 | 27.07 | 2.66 | 27.05 | 2.72 | 0.25 | 0.80 |
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| No. of chronic diseases | 0.64 | 0.88 | 0.69 | 0.88 | 0.60 | 0.87 | 2.08 | 0.01 |
| ADL | 27.36 | 4.53 | 28.11 | 3.68 | 26.65 | 5.10 | 8.80 | 0.00 |
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| 2,911 | 1,413 | 1,498 | |||||
Notes.
a The baseline measurement concerned a participant’s first complete observation, i.e. without missing values.
b For the dichotomous variable living alone the gender difference was tested with a χ2-test (df = 1).
Intercorrelations among the eight predictors at baseline .
| Emotional loneliness | Social loneliness | Emotional support | Instrumental support | Living alone | Contact frequency | Network size | |
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| Emotional loneliness | — | ||||||
| Social loneliness | 0.40 | — | |||||
| Emotional support | −0.09 | −0.20 | — | ||||
| Instrumental support | 0.04 | −0.09 | 0.17 | — | |||
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| Living alone | 0.39 | 0.15 | −0.02 | 0.10 | — | ||
| Contact frequency | −0.05 | −0.10 | 0.08 | 0.20 | −0.06 | — | |
| Network size | −0.20 | −0.31 | 0.12 | 0.06 | −0.19 | −0.31 | — |
| Network diversity | −0.23 | −0.35 | 0.15 | 0.06 | −0.31 | 0.14 | 0.61 |
Note.
a N = 2,911.
The baseline measurement concerned a participant’s first complete observation, i.e. without missing values.
*p < 0.05
**p < 0.01
***p < 0.001
Modeling steps of the Cox proportional hazard regressions.
| Models | Description | Variables |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baseline model | Age + single predictor |
| 2 | Extended model | Age + single predictor + remaining predictors |
| 3 | Mental health | Age + single predictor + mental health |
| 4 | Cognitive health | Age + single predictor + cognitive health |
| 5 | Physical health | Age + single predictor + physical health |
| 6 | Total health | Age + single predictor + mental health + cognitive health + physical health |
| 7 | Total health and time | Age + single predictor + mental health + cognitive health + physical health + interaction single predictor × time |
Notes. All models were stratified for gender.
a This is the age-adjusted model.
b This is the fully adjusted model.
c Results of Model 7 are not reported in the Cox regression table but in the text only.
Death hazard ratios from Cox proportional hazard models for different predictors, with adjustment for potential confounders (N ind = 2,911, N obs = 10,031).
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| Baseline model adjusted for | ||||||
| Baseline model | Extended model | Mental health | Cognitive health | Physical health | Total health | |
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| HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) |
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| Emotional | 1.079 | 1.053 | 1.020 | 1.073 | 1.039 | 1.023 |
| loneliness | (1.047,1.113) | (1.017,1.090) | (0.985,1.055) | (1.041,1.106) | (1.007,1.071) | (0.989,1.059) |
| Social | 1.067 | 1.016 | 1.028 | 1.060 | 1.046 | 1.030 |
| loneliness | (1.028,1.108) | (0.973,1.062) | (0.989,1.068) | (1.022,1.101) | (1.008,1.087) | (0.991,1.070) |
| Emotional | 0.985 | 0.975 | 0.989 | 1.003 | 0.994 | 1.009 |
| support | (0.917,1.058) | (0.904,1.051) | (0.921,1.062) | (0.934,1.077) | (0.926,1.067) | (0.940,1.083) |
| Instrumental | 1.137 | 1.154 | 1.102 | 1.127 | 1.056 | 1.049 |
| support | (1.053,1.227) | (1.063,1.252) | (1.021,1.190) | (1.045,1.216) | (0.978,1.141) | (0.971,1.132) |
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| Living | 1.230 | 1.066 | 1.107 | 1.203 | 1.097 | 1.051 |
| alone | (1.082,1.399) | (0.929,1.223) | (0.971,1.262) | (1.058,1.368) | (0.963,1.251) | (0.920,1.199) |
| Contact | 1.075 | 1.039 | 1.077 | 1.052 | 1.060 | 1.048 |
| frequency | (1.012,1.143) | (0.969,1.113) | (1.014,1.143) | (0.991,1.117) | (0.998,1.126) | (0.988,1.112) |
| Network | 0.978 | 0.988 | 0.982 | 0.983 | 0.982 | 0.986 |
| size | (0.970,0.986) | (0.977,0.999) | (0.975,0.990) | (0.975,0.990) | (0.974,0.990) | (0.979,0.994) |
| Network | 0.919 | 0.957 | 0.937 | 0.934 | 0.932 | 0.948 |
| diversity | (0.889,0.950) | (0.913,1.003) | (0.906,0.968) | (0.904,0.966) | (0.901,0.963) | (0.917,0.981) |
Notes. 95% confidence intervals in brackets.
*p < 0.05
**p < 0.01
***p < 0.001.
All models controlled for age at baseline and were stratified by gender.
a Models 1 tested the age-adjusted effect of a single predictor. Model 2 adjusted for the remaining predictors, thus testing the total set of predictor variables in a joint model. Models 3 adjusted for depression and anxiety (mental health). Models 4 adjusted for the MMSE-index (cognitive health). Models 5 adjusted for number of chronic diseases and ADL (physical health). Models 6 adjusted for all mental, cognitive and physical health variables.
Fig 1Survivor functions compared for upper and lower quartiles of network structure (N ind = 2,911).
Note. Based on predictions from the fully adjusted Cox regression models (Models 6). For network size, the lower quartile (25th percentile) included 8 contacts, while the higher quartile (75th percentile) included 19 contacts. For network diversity, the lower quartile included 3 social roles, while the higher quartile included 6 social roles.
Fig 2Death hazard ratios for women (N ind = 1,498) and men (N ind = 1,413), compared for age-adjusted and adjusted models.
Note. Hazard ratios are shown on a logarithmic scale. Age-adjusted coefficients represent bivariate associations from Models 1. Adjusted coefficients represent multivariate associations from Models 6. Hazard ratios may not be compared across the different variables (as ranges are unequal), but only between age-adjusted and adjusted coefficients, and between men and women.