Probabilistic evaluation of integrating resource recovery into wastewater treatment to improve environmental sustainability.

Global expectations for wastewater service infrastructure have evolved over time, and the standard treatment methods used by wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) are facing issues related to problem shifting due to the current emphasis on sustainability. A transition in WWTPs toward reuse of wastewater-derived resources is recognized as a promising solution for overcoming these obstacles. However, it remains uncertain whether this approach can reduce the environmental footprint of WWTPs. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a net environmental benefit calculation for several scenarios for more than 50 individual countries over a 20-y time frame. For developed countries, the resource recovery approach resulted in ∼154% net increase in the environmental performance of WWTPs compared with the traditional substance elimination approach, whereas this value decreased to ∼60% for developing countries. Subsequently, we conducted a probabilistic analysis integrating these estimates with national values and determined that, if this transition was attempted for WWTPs in developed countries, it would have a ∼65% probability of attaining net environmental benefits. However, this estimate decreased greatly to ∼10% for developing countries, implying a substantial risk of failure. These results suggest that implementation of this transition for WWTPs should be studied carefully in different temporal and spatial contexts. Developing countries should customize their approach to realizing more sustainable WWTPs, rather than attempting to simply replicate the successful models of developed countries. Results derived from the model forecasting highlight the role of bioenergy generation and reduced use of chemicals in improving the sustainability of WWTPs in developing countries.