Laura Martínez García1, Andrea Juliana Sanabria2, Elvira García Alvarez2, Maria Mar Trujillo-Martín2, Itziar Etxeandia-Ikobaltzeta2, Anna Kotzeva2, David Rigau2, Arturo Louro-González2, Leticia Barajas-Nava2, Petra Díaz Del Campo2, Maria-Dolors Estrada2, Ivan Solà2, Javier Gracia2, Flavia Salcedo-Fernandez2, Jennifer Lawson2, R Brian Haynes2, Pablo Alonso-Coello2. 1. Iberoamerican Cochrane Centre and Biomedical Research Institute Sant Pau (IIB Sant Pau) (Martínez García, Sanabria, Rigau, Barajas-Nava, Solà, Alonso-Coello), Barcelona, Spain; NHS Ayrshire and Arran (García Álvarez), Ayr, United Kingdom; Fundación Canaria de Investigación y Salud (FUNCIS), Red de Investigación en Servicios de Salud en Enfermedades Crónicas (REDISSEC) (Trujillo-Martín), Tenerife, Spain; Osteba, and Basque Office for Health Technology Assessment (Etxeandia-Ikobaltzeta), Vitoria, Spain; Agency for Health Quality and Assessment of Catalonia (AQuAS) (Kotzeva, Estrada), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP) (Kotzeva, Estrada, Solà, Alonso-Coello), Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Saúde de Cambre, Xerencia de Xestión Integrada de A Coruña SERGAS (Louro-González), A Coruña, Spain; Health Technology Assessment Unit (UETS), Subdirección General de Tecnología e Innovación Sanitaria, Consejería de Sanidad (Díaz del Campo), Madrid, Spain; National Clinical Practice Guideline Programme of the NHS (Gracia), Madrid, Spain; GuíaSalud-Aragon Institute of Health Sciences (Salcedo-Fernandez), Zaragoza, Spain; Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, (Lawson, Haynes), Hamilton, Ont. laura.martinez.garcia@cochrane.es. 2. Iberoamerican Cochrane Centre and Biomedical Research Institute Sant Pau (IIB Sant Pau) (Martínez García, Sanabria, Rigau, Barajas-Nava, Solà, Alonso-Coello), Barcelona, Spain; NHS Ayrshire and Arran (García Álvarez), Ayr, United Kingdom; Fundación Canaria de Investigación y Salud (FUNCIS), Red de Investigación en Servicios de Salud en Enfermedades Crónicas (REDISSEC) (Trujillo-Martín), Tenerife, Spain; Osteba, and Basque Office for Health Technology Assessment (Etxeandia-Ikobaltzeta), Vitoria, Spain; Agency for Health Quality and Assessment of Catalonia (AQuAS) (Kotzeva, Estrada), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP) (Kotzeva, Estrada, Solà, Alonso-Coello), Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Saúde de Cambre, Xerencia de Xestión Integrada de A Coruña SERGAS (Louro-González), A Coruña, Spain; Health Technology Assessment Unit (UETS), Subdirección General de Tecnología e Innovación Sanitaria, Consejería de Sanidad (Díaz del Campo), Madrid, Spain; National Clinical Practice Guideline Programme of the NHS (Gracia), Madrid, Spain; GuíaSalud-Aragon Institute of Health Sciences (Salcedo-Fernandez), Zaragoza, Spain; Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, (Lawson, Haynes), Hamilton, Ont.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Clinical guidelines should be updated to maintain their validity. Our aim was to estimate the length of time before recommendations become outdated. METHODS: We used a retrospective cohort design and included recommendations from clinical guidelines developed in the Spanish National Health System clinical guideline program since 2008. We performed a descriptive analysis of references, recommendations and resources used, and a survival analysis of recommendations using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: We included 113 recommendations from 4 clinical guidelines with a median of 4 years since the most recent search (range 3.9-4.4 yr). We retrieved 39 136 references (range 3343-14 787) using an exhaustive literature search, 668 of which were related to the recommendations in our sample. We identified 69 (10.3%) key references, corresponding to 25 (22.1%) recommendations that required updating. Ninety-two percent (95% confidence interval 86.9-97.0) of the recommendations were valid 1 year after their development. This probability decreased at 2 (85.7%), 3 (81.3%) and 4 years (77.8%). INTERPRETATION: Recommendations quickly become outdated, with 1 out of 5 recommendations being out of date after 3 years. Waiting more than 3 years to review a guideline is potentially too long.
BACKGROUND: Clinical guidelines should be updated to maintain their validity. Our aim was to estimate the length of time before recommendations become outdated. METHODS: We used a retrospective cohort design and included recommendations from clinical guidelines developed in the Spanish National Health System clinical guideline program since 2008. We performed a descriptive analysis of references, recommendations and resources used, and a survival analysis of recommendations using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: We included 113 recommendations from 4 clinical guidelines with a median of 4 years since the most recent search (range 3.9-4.4 yr). We retrieved 39 136 references (range 3343-14 787) using an exhaustive literature search, 668 of which were related to the recommendations in our sample. We identified 69 (10.3%) key references, corresponding to 25 (22.1%) recommendations that required updating. Ninety-two percent (95% confidence interval 86.9-97.0) of the recommendations were valid 1 year after their development. This probability decreased at 2 (85.7%), 3 (81.3%) and 4 years (77.8%). INTERPRETATION: Recommendations quickly become outdated, with 1 out of 5 recommendations being out of date after 3 years. Waiting more than 3 years to review a guideline is potentially too long.
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