| Literature DB >> 24904018 |
Yuesong Pan1, Anxin Wang1, Gaifen Liu1, Xingquan Zhao1, Xia Meng1, Kun Zhao2, Liping Liu1, Chunxue Wang1, S Claiborne Johnston3, Yilong Wang1, Yongjun Wang1.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Treatment with the combination of clopidogrel and aspirin taken soon after a transient ischemic attack (TIA) or minor stroke was shown to reduce the 90-day risk of stroke in a large trial in China, but the cost-effectiveness is unknown. This study sought to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the clopidogrel-aspirin regimen for acute TIA or minor stroke. METHODS ANDEntities:
Keywords: clopidogrel; cost‐effectiveness; quality‐adjusted life‐year; stroke
Mesh:
Substances:
Year: 2014 PMID: 24904018 PMCID: PMC4309076 DOI: 10.1161/JAHA.114.000912
Source DB: PubMed Journal: J Am Heart Assoc ISSN: 2047-9980 Impact factor: 5.501
Figure 1.Markov model showing potential transitions between health states. Locations in the model where prescribers can make a decision (squares), chance nodes that are under the control of transition probabilities (circles), and terminal nodes (triangles) are presented. Transitions to future health states leading from the ASA‐alone branch are the same as for the Clopidogrel‐ASA branch. ASA indicates aspirin; ECH, extracranial hemorrhage; ICH, intracerebral hemorrhage; M, Markov node; MI, myocardial infarction; TIA, transient ischemic attack.
Efficacy of Clopidogrel‐Aspirin Regimen for TIA and Minor Stroke
| Model Input | Aspirin‐Alone Regimen | Clopidogrel‐Aspirin Regimen | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Proportion of patients after 90 days | CHANCE trial database | ||
| Minor or no disability (mRS 0 to 2) | 0.9233 | 0.9376 | |
| Moderate disability (mRS 3 to 4) | 0.0670 | 0.0527 | |
| Severe disability (mRS 5) | 0.0058 | 0.0058 | |
| Death (mRS 6) | 0.0039 | 0.0039 | |
| 90‐day event risks | |||
| Recurrent stroke | 0.1172 | 0.0820 | |
| Proportion of ICH | 0.0264 | 0.0377 | |
| Major ECH | 0.0066 | 0.0108 | |
| MI | 0.0008 | 0.0012 |
TIA indicates transient ischemic attack; CHANCE, Clopidogrel in High‐risk patients with Acute Non‐disabling Cerebrovascular Events Trial; mRS, modified Rankin Score; ICH, intracerebral hemorrhage; ECH, extracranial hemorrhage; MI, myocardial infarction.
Model Parameters and the Range of Values Tested in Sensitivity Analyses
| Model Input | Base‐Case | Range | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cost inputs (2011 CNY) | |||
| Additional cost of 90‐day clopidogrel‐aspirin regimen | 1990 | 210 to 2388 |
[ |
| One‐time hospitalization costs | |||
| Ischemic stroke, mRS 0 to 2 | 9866 | 5542 to 12519 | CNSR[ |
| Ischemic stroke, mRS 3 to 5 or 6 | 13081 | 7383 to 17114 | |
| ICH, mRS 0 to 2 | 11118 | 5932 to 13902 | |
| ICH, mRS 3 to 5 or 6 | 14760 | 7665 to 19438 | |
| MI | 16793 | 6545 to 29434 |
[ |
| Major ECH | 7203 | 4391 to 14468 | |
| Annual posthospitalization costs | |||
| Stroke, mRS 0 to 2 | 6920 | 1728 to 8639 | CNSR |
| Stroke, mRS 3 to 5 | 10932 | 3240 to 14255 | |
| Utility inputs | |||
| Minor or no disability (mRS 0 to 2) | 0.75 | 0.70 to 0.90 |
[ |
| Moderate disability (mRS 3 to 4) | 0.39 | 0.10 to 0.50 | |
| Severe disability (mRS 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 to 0.32 | |
| Death (mRS 6) | 0 | 0.00 to 0.00 | |
| Utility of major ECH | 0.80 | 0.79 to 0.84 |
[ |
| Utility of MI | 0.84 | 0.67 to 0.96 |
[ |
| Probabilities inputs | |||
| Recurrent rate of stroke (per patient year) | 0.1219 | 0.1163 to 0.1276 | CNSR[ |
| Among patients with recurrent stroke, proportion with: | CNSR[ | ||
| ICH | 0.075 | 0.075 to 0.146 | |
| Death | 0.1933 | 0.1737 to 0.2128 | |
| Relative risk of stroke recurrence per life‐year | 1.017 | 1.013 to 1.022 | CNSR |
| Age‐specific nonstroke death rate | 0.0089 to 0.1654 |
[ | |
| Rate of major ECH | 0.0038 | 0.0030 to 0.0048 |
[ |
| Mortality rate of major ECH | 0.06 |
[ | |
| Rate of MI | 0.0085 | 0.0060 to 0.0114 |
[ |
| Mortality rate of fatal MI | 0.150 | 0.103 to 0.246 |
[ |
| Discount rate inputs | |||
| Costs | 0.03 | 0.03 to 0.08 |
[ |
| Outcomes | 0.03 | ±20% |
[ |
All costs were converted to 2011 CNY by using the medical care component of consumer price index; to convert CNY to US dollars, divide by 6.5. CNY indicates Chinese Yuan Renminbi; mRS, modified Rankin Score; CNSR, China National Stroke Registry; MI, myocardial infarction; ECH, extracranial hemorrhage; ICH, intracerebral hemorrhage.
Age‐specific nonstroke death rate for only the number of 63‐year‐olds (0.0089) and 93‐year‐olds (0.1654) is presented.
Cost and QALYs per Capita in Base‐Case Analysis
| Strategy | Cost (CNY) | QALYs | ICER (CNY/QALY) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aspirin‐alone regimen | 136 850 | 6.461 | — |
| Clopidogrel‐aspirin regimen | 138 100 | 6.498 | 33 784 |
QALY indicates quality‐adjusted life‐year; CNY, Chinese Yuan Renminbi; ICER, incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio.
Figure 2.One‐way sensitivity analyses on incremental cost per quality‐adjusted life‐year (ICER) gained by 90‐day clopidogrel‐aspirin regimen. All parameters were analyzed, and only those with highest influence on ICER are displayed. The first number listed after the variable name is the base‐case value. Numbers listed in parentheses indicate the range of the variable. Dark‐shaded bars represent the lower bound of the variable range. Light‐shaded bars represent the upper bound. Solid vertical lines represent ICER of the clopidogrel‐aspirin regimen at the base‐case scenario (CNY 33 800). CNY indicates Chinese Yuan Renminbi; MI, myocardial infarction; QALYs, quality‐adjusted life‐years.
Figure 3.Incremental cost‐effectiveness scatterplot of the result of the probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Each point represents a simulation. The dark square represents the base‐case (0.037 QALY gained at an incremental cost of CNY 1250). The solid line represents the willingness‐to‐pay threshold of CNY 105 000 per QALY. The dashed line represents CNY 35 100 per QALY. CNY indicates Chinese Yuan Renminbi; QALYs, quality‐adjusted life‐years.
Figure 4.Cost‐effectiveness acceptability curve results based on 10 000 Monte Carlo simulations of the model. The curve presents the probability that the clopidogrel‐aspirin regimen is cost‐effective as a function of willingness‐to‐pay threshold. The solid vertical line represents the willingness‐to‐pay threshold of CNY 105 000 per QALY. The dashed vertical line represents CNY 35 100 per QALY. CNY indicates Chinese Yuan Renminbi; QALYs, quality‐adjusted life‐years.