Relative reliability of five serially measured markers for prognosis of progression in prostate cancer.

During an 8-year period, 1,065 serum specimens were collected from 79 patients with prostate cancer of stages B2 to D1 (group I) and 51 patients with newly diagnosed stage D2 prostate cancer (group II) to evaluate statistically the relative reliability of elevated tumor-associated markers for progressive disease in prostate cancer. Forty of the group I patients and 21 of the group II patients presented a clinical progression of disease during follow-up. With the use of Gail's modification of Cox's regression model, serial acid phosphatase (AcP), total alkaline phosphatase (TAP), bone alkaline phosphatase (BAP), prostatic acid phosphatase (PAP), and prostate-specific antigen (PA) were analyzed. Results from group I patients revealed that only PA (P = .0002) and PAP (P = .0684) were prognostically important markers for detection of imminent disease progression. However, all markers were prognostically important in group II patients. Comparative studies indicated that PA (P = .0052) and PAP (P = .0359) were the more reliable markers for group I patients, whereas PA (P less than .0001), BAP (P = .0007), and PAP (P = .0206) were the more reliable markers for group II patients. Multivariate analyses revealed that, after adjustment for the effect of PA, no other marker was significantly related to the risk of progression. Elevated PA levels were predictive of increased risk 6 months before disease progression in group I patients only (P less than .0001). Overall, the apparent order of prognostic reliability for disease progression was found to be PA greater than PAP greater than BAP greater than AcP greater than TAP.