Noise-induced regime shifts: A quantitative characterization.

Diverse complex dynamical systems are known to exhibit abrupt regime shifts at bifurcation points of the saddle-node type. The dynamics of most of these systems, however, have a stochastic component resulting in noise-driven regime shifts even if the system is away from the bifurcation points. In this paper, we propose a new quantitative measure, namely, the propensity transition point as an indicator of stochastic regime shifts. The concepts and the methodology are illustrated for the one-variable May model, a well-known model in ecology and the genetic toggle, a two-variable model of a simple genetic circuit. The general applicability and usefulness of the method for the analysis of regime shifts is further demonstrated in the case of the mycobacterial switch to persistence for which experimental data are available.