Bayesian forecasting of serum gentamicin concentrations in intensive care patients.

This study retrospectively evaluated the predictive performance of a 1-compartment Bayesian forecasting program in adult intensive care unit (ICU) patients with stable renal function. A comparison was made of the reliability of 3 sets of population-based parameter estimates and 2 serum concentration monitoring strategies. A larger mean error for prediction of peak gentamicin concentrations was seen with literature-derived parameters than when ICU population-based parameter estimates were used. Bias and precision improved when non-steady-state peak and trough concentrations were used to predict those at steady-state; the addition of steady-state values did not provide additional information for predictions once non-steady-state feedback concentrations were incorporated. The addition of 4 serial gentamicin concentrations obtained at both non-steady-state and steady-state did not noticeably improve the predictive performance. The results demonstrate that initial ICU pharmacokinetic parameter estimates for a 1-compartment Bayesian model provide accurate prediction of steady-state gentamicin concentrations. Prediction bias and precision showed the greatest improvement when non-steady-state gentamicin concentrations were used to determine individualised pharmacokinetic parameters.