| Literature DB >> 22844166 |
Abstract
In this study the issue of the validity of the argument against the applied length of citation windows in Journal Impact Factors calculations is critically re-analyzed. While previous studies argued against the relatively short citation window of 1-2 years, this study shows that the relative short term citation impact measured in the window underlying the Journal Impact Factor is a good predictor of the citation impact of the journals in the next years to come. Possible exceptions to this observation relate to journals with relatively low numbers of publications, and the citation impact related to publications in the year of publication. The study focuses on five Journal Subject Categories from the science and social sciences, on normal articles published in these journals, in the 2 years 2000 and 2004.Entities:
Year: 2012 PMID: 22844166 PMCID: PMC3399074 DOI: 10.1007/s11192-012-0677-x
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Scientometrics ISSN: 0138-9130 Impact factor: 3.238
Overall contents of the five selected Journal Subject Categories, 2000 and 2004
| 2000 | 2004 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nr Jnls | Nr Pubs | Average Nr Pubs | Nr Jnls | Nr Pubs | Average Nr Pubs | |
| Biochemistry and molecular biology | 238 | 47,346 | 198.9 | 235 | 43,574 | 185.4 |
| Economics | 184 | 7,698 | 41.8 | 187 | 7,973 | 42.6 |
| Information and library science | 58 | 1,722 | 29.7 | 57 | 1,867 | 32.8 |
| Mathematics | 170 | 13,304 | 78.3 | 191 | 14,082 | 73.7 |
| Pathology | 66 | 6,237 | 94.5 | 65 | 5,501 | 84.6 |
Contents of the five selected Journal Subject Categories, 2000 and 2004
| 2000 | 2004 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nr Jnls | Nr Pubs | Average # publs. | Range of # publs. | Nr Jnls | Nr Pubs | Average # publs. | Range of # publs. | |
| Biochemistry and molecular biology | ||||||||
| 1–50 | 77 | 2,153 | 28.0 | 1–50 | 68 | 2,039 | 30.0 | 1–48 |
| 51–100 | 56 | 4,125 | 73.7 | 52–99 | 55 | 4,018 | 73.1 | 52–97 |
| 101–150 | 38 | 4,550 | 119.7 | 101–149 | 37 | 4,608 | 124.5 | 101–144 |
| 151–200 | 23 | 4,550 | 197.8 | 153–196 | 24 | 4,112 | 171.3 | 151–194 |
| 201–250 | 14 | 3,216 | 229.7 | 204–250 | 14 | 3,194 | 228.1 | 203–248 |
| 251– | 30 | 22,957 | 765.2 | 255–5,486 | 37 | 25,603 | 692.0 | 255–6,156 |
| Economics | ||||||||
| 1–20 | 36 | 485 | 13.5 | 5–20 | 35 | 471 | 13.5 | 5–20 |
| 21–30 | 55 | 1,372 | 24.9 | 21–30 | 44 | 1,153 | 26.2 | 21–30 |
| 31–40 | 30 | 1,046 | 34.9 | 31–40 | 38 | 1,348 | 35.5 | 31–40 |
| 41–50 | 19 | 868 | 45.7 | 41–50 | 22 | 1,002 | 45.5 | 41–50 |
| 51–75 | 24 | 1,494 | 62.3 | 52–75 | 31 | 1,893 | 61.1 | 51–74 |
| 76– | 20 | 2,433 | 121.7 | 76–236 | 17 | 2,106 | 123.9 | 76–263 |
| Information and library science | ||||||||
| 1–15 | 15 | 145 | 9.7 | 4–14 | 10 | 107 | 10.7 | 4–14 |
| 16–25 | 12 | 233 | 19.4 | 16–25 | 19 | 392 | 20.6 | 16–25 |
| 26–35 | 16 | 478 | 29.9 | 26–34 | 8 | 248 | 31.0 | 26–34 |
| 36–50 | 9 | 369 | 41.0 | 36–46 | 13 | 546 | 42.0 | 36–46 |
| 51– | 6 | 497 | 82.8 | 51–108 | 7 | 574 | 82.0 | 51–143 |
| Mathematics | ||||||||
| 1–30 | 30 | 605 | 20.2 | 6–30 | 41 | 792 | 19.3 | 7–28 |
| 31–45 | 37 | 1,371 | 37.1 | 31–45 | 46 | 1,766 | 38.4 | 31–45 |
| 46–60 | 36 | 1,928 | 53.6 | 46–60 | 28 | 1,477 | 52.8 | 46–60 |
| 61–100 | 30 | 2,405 | 80.2 | 61–98 | 44 | 3,370 | 76.6 | 61–100 |
| 101–150 | 22 | 2,572 | 116.9 | 104–150 | 15 | 1,799 | 119.9 | 103–148 |
| 151– | 15 | 4,423 | 294.9 | 159–479 | 17 | 4,878 | 286.9 | 160–590 |
| Pathology | ||||||||
| 1–35 | 13 | 340 | 26.2 | 8–33 | 13 | 285 | 21.9 | 1–33 |
| 36–70 | 20 | 910 | 45.5 | 37–62 | 24 | 1,162 | 48.4 | 36–69 |
| 71–150 | 17 | 1,675 | 98.5 | 72–146 | 18 | 1,912 | 106.2 | 71–147 |
| 151– | 16 | 3,312 | 207.0 | 154–427 | 10 | 2,142 | 214.2 | 164–379 |
Year to year correlations for impact scores per journal class in five Journal Subject Categories, 2000
| Journal class | y1–y2 | y2–y3 | y3–y4 | y4–y5 | y5–y6 | y6–y7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biochemistry and molecular biology | ||||||
| 1–50 | 0.85 | 0.93 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 51–100 | 0.91 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 101–150 | 0.96 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 151–200 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 201–250 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 251– | 0.97 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Economics | ||||||
| 1–20 | 0.62 | 0.97 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 21–30 | 0.74 | 0.94 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 |
| 31–40 | 0.28 | 0.94 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 |
| 41–50 | 0.85 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 51–75 | 0.86 | 0.97 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 76– | 0.84 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Information and library science | ||||||
| 1–15 | 0.46 | 0.74 | 0.95 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.99 |
| 16–25 | 0.85 | 0.84 | 0.96 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| 26–35 | 0.01 | 0.87 | 0.95 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| 36–50 | 0.86 | 0.91 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 |
| 51– | 0.94 | 0.90 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 |
| Mathematics | ||||||
| 1–30 | 0.83 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 |
| 31–45 | 0.72 | 0.95 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 46–60 | 0.79 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 61–100 | 0.79 | 0.96 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 101–150 | 0.87 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 151– | 0.85 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Pathology | ||||||
| 1–35 | 0.90 | 0.88 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 36–70 | 0.89 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 71–150 | 0.70 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 151– | 0.98 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Year to year correlations for impact scores per journal class in five Journal Subject Categories, 2004
| Journal class | y1–y2 | y2–y3 | y3–y4 | y4–y5 | y5–y6 | y6–y7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biochemistry and molecular biology | ||||||
| 1–50 | 0.81 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 51–100 | 0.89 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 101–150 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 151–200 | 0.96 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 201–250 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 251– | 0.98 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Economics | ||||||
| 1–20 | 0.54 | 0.90 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 21–30 | 0.89 | 0.96 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 31–40 | 0.76 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 41–50 | 0.62 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 51–75 | 0.89 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 76– | 0.65 | 0.94 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Information and library science | ||||||
| 1–15 | 0.72 | 0.86 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 16–25 | 0.20 | 0.88 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 26–35 | 0.98 | 0.83 | 0.95 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 36–50 | 0.69 | 0.88 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 |
| 51– | 0.92 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Mathematics | ||||||
| 1–30 | 0.84 | 0.97 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 31–45 | 0.78 | 0.96 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 |
| 46–60 | 0.69 | 0.96 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 61–100 | 0.86 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 101–150 | 0.92 | 0.97 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 151– | 0.83 | 0.95 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Pathology | ||||||
| 1–35 | 0.76 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 1.00 |
| 36–70 | 0.79 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 71–150 | 0.83 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 151– | 0.97 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Fig. 1a Year to year correlations for impact scores per journal class in Biochemistry and molecular biology, 2000. b Year to year correlations for impact scores per journal class in Economics, 2000. c Year to year correlations for impact scores per journal class in Information and library science, 2000. d Year to year correlations for impact scores per journal class in Mathematics, 2000. e Year to year correlations for impact scores per journal class in Pathology, 2000
Fig. 2a Year to year correlations for impact scores per journal class in Biochemistry and molecular biology, 2004. b Year to year correlations for impact scores per journal class in Economics, 2004. c Year to year correlations for impact scores per journal class in Information and library science, 2004. d Year to year correlations for impact scores per journal class in Mathematics, 2004. e Year to year correlations for impact scores per journal class in Pathology, 2004