Hawai'i physician workforce assessment 2010.

BACKGROUND: National policy experts have estimated that the United States will be 15-20% short of physicians by the year 2020. In 2008, the Big Island of Hawai'i was found to be 15% short of physicians. The current article describes research to determine the physician supply and demand across the State of Hawai'i.
METHODS: The researchers utilized licensure lists, all available sources of physician practice location information, and contacted provider offices to develop a database of practicing physicians in Hawai'i. A statistical model based on national utilization of physician services by age, ethnicity, gender, insurance, and obesity rates was used to estimate demand for services. Using number of new state licenses per year, the researchers estimated the number of physicians who enter the Hawai'i workforce annually. Physician age data were used to estimate retirements.
RESULTS: Researchers found 2,860 full time equivalents of practicing, non-military, patient-care physicians in Hawai'i (excluding those still in residency or fellowship programs). The calculated demand for physician services by specialty indicates a current shortage of physicians of over 600. This shortage may grow by 50 to 100 physicians per year if steps are not taken to reverse this trend. Physician retirement is the single largest element in the loss of physicians, with population growth and aging playing a significant role in increasing demand. DISCUSSION: Study findings indicate that Hawai'i is 20% short of physicians and the situation is likely to worsen if mitigating steps are not taken immediately.