| Literature DB >> 22724030 |
Robin H Miller1, Penny Masuoka, Terry A Klein, Heung-Chul Kim, Todd Somer, John Grieco.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Culex tritaeniorhynchus is the primary vector of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), a leading cause of encephalitis in Asia. JEV is transmitted in an enzootic cycle involving large wading birds as the reservoirs and swine as amplifying hosts. The development of a JEV vaccine reduced the number of JE cases in regions with comprehensive childhood vaccination programs, such as in Japan and the Republic of Korea. However, the lack of vaccine programs or insufficient coverage of populations in other endemic countries leaves many people susceptible to JEV. The aim of this study was to predict the distribution of Culex tritaeniorhynchus using ecological niche modeling. METHODS/PRINCIPALEntities:
Mesh:
Year: 2012 PMID: 22724030 PMCID: PMC3378598 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001678
Source DB: PubMed Journal: PLoS Negl Trop Dis ISSN: 1935-2727
Figure 1Japanese encephalitis virus endemic area.
Map adapted from CDC.
Figure 2Distribution of known Cx. tritaeniorhynchus locations and documented human cases of JE within endemic region.
Summary of JEV vaccination programs in endemic countries and predicted percentage of land with greater than 25% estimated probability of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus presence based on ecological niche model.
| JEV Endemic Countries | JE vaccination program status | Percentage of area >25% estimated probability of |
| Australia | Administered in endemic areas | 4.6 |
| Bangladesh | No Current Immunization Program | 56.8 |
| Bhutan | No Current Immunization Program | 0 |
| Brunei | No Current Immunization Program | 16.3 |
| Cambodia | No Current Immunization Program | 79.4 |
| China | National Vaccination Program 2010 | 3.6 |
| East Timor | No Current Immunization Program | 68.4 |
| India | Vaccine administered in high risk areas, not integrated into routine immunization program | 19.2 |
| Indonesia | No Current Immunization Program | 14 |
| Japan | National Vaccination Program 2010 | 42.4 |
| Laos | No Current Immunization Program | 19.7 |
| Malaysia | Regional vaccination | 8.4 |
| Myanmar | No Current Immunization Program | 20.5 |
| Nepal | Vaccine introduced in 2006, not widely implemented | 2.8 |
| Democratic People's Republic of Korea | DPRK originated vaccine provided in high risk areas | 21.1 |
| Pakistan | No Current Immunization Program | 0.06 |
| Papua New Guinea | No Current Immunization Program | 11.1 |
| Philippines | No wide scale vaccination program in place , vaccine trial in progress | 46 |
| Republic of Korea | Government mandated mass immunization began in 1971 | 78.8 |
| Russia | No data | 0.01 |
| Singapore | No data | 10.7 |
| Sri Lanka | 18 of 26 districts receive vaccine annually, plans to extend to all districts | 85.2 |
| Taiwan | National vaccination program | 34.2 |
| Thailand | National Vaccination Program 2010 | 80.9 |
| Viet Nam | Vaccine distributed in high risk districts | 61 |
| Western Pacific (Guam, Saipan) | No data | No data |
Obtained from PATH: Japanese Encephalitis Morbidity, Mortality, and Disability: Reduction and Control by 2015 (ref.16) and WHO/IVB database, 193 WHO Member States. Data as of September 2011 (ref. 24).
Minimum, maximum, mean values and percent contribution of environmental data layers for Cx. tritaeniorhynchus model.
| Variable1 | Description | Min | Max | Mean | Percent Contribution |
| Alt | Altitude (elevation above sea level), m | 0 | 838 | 153.4 | 9.6 |
| Bio01 | Annual mean temperature, °C | 8.2 | 28.9 | 23.3 | 4.4 |
| Bio02 | Mean diurnal range (Mean of monthly (max temp-min temp)), °C | 4.9 | 15 | 9.4 | 4.7 |
| Bio03 | Isothermality [(Bio2/Bio7)*100], °C | 2.2 | 9 | 5.1 | 1.8 |
| Bio04 | Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation * 100), °C | 30.1 | 1031.3 | 366 | 3.3 |
| Bio05 | Max temperature of the warmest month, °C | 25.8 | 42.5 | 33.4 | 1.2 |
| Bio06 | Min temperature of the coldest month, °C | −12.5 | 24.4 | 12.4 | 3.3 |
| Bio07 | Temperature annual range (Bio5-Bio6), °C | 7.2 | 40.7 | 21 | 3.2 |
| Bio08 | Mean temperature of the wettest quarter | 16.9 | 32.8 | 262 | 21.7 |
| Bio09 | Mean temperature of the driest quarter, °C | −4.9 | 28.7 | 19.5 | 0.3 |
| Bio10 | Mean temperature of the warmest quarter, °C | 20.1 | 34.3 | 27.7 | 0.6 |
| Bio11 | Mean temperature of the coldest quarter, °C | −4.9 | 27.2 | 18.3 | 1 |
| Bio12 | Annual precipitation, mm | 152 | 4005 | 1610.3 | 16.2 |
| Bio13 | Precipitation of the wettest month, mm | 41 | 1011 | 319.4 | 5.9 |
| Bio14 | Precipitation of the driest month, mm | 0 | 233 | 30.8 | 6 |
| Bio15 | Precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation), mm | 18 | 138 | 74.5 | 5.8 |
| Bio16 | Precipitation of the wettest quarter, mm | 95 | 2455 | 797.4 | 1 |
| Bio17 | Precipitation of the driest quarter, mm | 0 | 786 | 114.9 | 0.7 |
| Bio18 | Precipitation of the warmest quarter, mm | 62 | 1015 | 467.2 | 0.7 |
| Bio19 | Precipitation of the coldest quarter, mm | 11 | 1812 | 260.7 | 8.5 |
A quarter is a period of three months.
Figure 3Maxent model estimation of the probability of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus distribution in the JE endemic region.
Darker areas indicate areas that are likely to have suitable habitat for this vector species while lighter areas indicate areas of that are less suitable for the vector.
Maxent model accuracy analysis using different sets of environmental data inputs.
| Environmental Data Input | AUC Training Points | AUC Test Points | P-value Minimum Training Presence |
| Bioclimatic and Elevation data | 0.971 | 0.932 | <0.0001 |
| All layers (including rice crop) | 0.968 | 0.919 | <0.0001 |
| Bioclimatic data only | 0.968 | 0.929 | <0.0001 |
| Elevation data only | 0.822 | 0.849 | <0.0001 |
Figure 4Human JE cases categorized by color based on the estimated probability of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus presence.
Figure 5Percent of 30 meter pixels classified as rice land cover within 1 one square kilometer derived from the GeoCover Land Cover product.
Gray areas indicate no data.