Predicted geographic ranges for North American sylvatic Trichinella species.

Because of a lack of comprehensive surveys, the geographic distributions of the North American species of encapsulating Trichinella (T. nativa and its variant T6, T. murrelli, and T. spiralis) are poorly characterized in detail. These species are potentially zoonotic; therefore, biogeographic information is critical to monitoring their status and any distribution changes due to climatic and man-made environmental impacts. The maximum entropy (Maxent) program was used to model predicted ranges for these sylvatic Trichinella spp., using a limited number of available location records with confirmed species identifications collected over 55 yr throughout North America. The resulting prediction models were shown to be robust, and the species maps created are presented. The predicted range of T. nativa is primarily north of the 48 degrees - 52 degrees latitudes, overlapping the Tundra, sub-Arctic, and Warm Continental eco-regions. Its sympatric genotypic variant, T6, has a predicted range covering primarily the sub-Arctic and mountainous Temperate Steppe eco-regions, the latter extending below 48 degrees N latitude. In the east, the T6 range includes the Warm Continental and the mountainous Hot Continental eco-regions; the T6 range is also predicted to extend to the Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico. The most probable range of T. murrelli is centered in the Midwest within the Hot Continental and Prairie eco-regions, with an extension southward to the Subtropical and Tropical/Subtropical Steppe and Desert eco-regions. In the west, it exists in a restricted range characterized as mountainous Mediterranean. The most probable distribution of sylvatic T. spiralis is along the humid east North American coast (Hot Continental south to Subtropical), and along the coast of northwest North America (Marine) to Alaska (subArctic and Tundra). Its most southerly range extends into central Mexico (Tropical/Subtropical Desert). The difference in relative freeze resistance between T. nativa/T6 and T. murrelli undoubtedly accounts for much of this geographic separation. However, the factors responsible for the absence of a more southerly distribution of T. nativa are not obvious, given the overlap in host range with T. murrelli. The maximum July temperature appears to have a significant effect on this distribution pattern. The results of the model building highlight subjects for future research on the biotic and abiotic factors important in determining Trichinella spp. distributions and directions for model validation research.