| Literature DB >> 22396313 |
Steven Rosenberg1, Michael R Elashoff, Hsiao D Lieu, Bradley O Brown, William E Kraus, Robert S Schwartz, Szilard Voros, Stephen G Ellis, Ron Waksman, John A McPherson, Alexandra J Lansky, Eric J Topol.
Abstract
The majority of first-time angiography patients are without obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). A blood gene expression score (GES) for obstructive CAD likelihood was validated in the PREDICT study, but its relation to major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and revascularization was not assessed. Patients (N = 1,160) were followed up for MACE and revascularization 1 year post-index angiography and GES, with 1,116 completing follow-up. The 30-day event rate was 23% and a further 2.2% at 12 months. The GES was associated with MACE/revascularizations (p < 0.001) and added to clinical risk scores. Patients with GES >15 trended towards increased >30 days MACE/revascularization likelihood (odds ratio = 2.59, 95% confidence interval = 0.89-9.14, p = 0.082). MACE incidence overall was 1.5% (17 of 1,116) and 3 of 17 patients had GES ≤ 15. For the total low GES group (N = 396), negative predictive value was 90% for MACE/revascularization and >99% for MACE alone, identifying a group of patients without obstructive CAD and highly unlikely to suffer MACE within 12 months.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2012 PMID: 22396313 PMCID: PMC3349850 DOI: 10.1007/s12265-012-9353-z
Source DB: PubMed Journal: J Cardiovasc Transl Res ISSN: 1937-5387 Impact factor: 4.132
Clinical and demographic characteristics of PREDICT patient cohorts
| Set parameter | Complete cohort | Clinical validation subset |
|---|---|---|
|
| 1,160 | 526 |
| Male sex | 668 (57.6%) | 299 (56.8%) |
| Age | 59.9 ± 11.8 (25.5 to 90.9) | 60.3 ± 11.6 (25.6 to 90.9) |
| SBP | 134.9 ± 18.3 (88 to 213) | 135.2 ± 18.4 (90 to 213) |
| Dyslipidemia | 734 (63.3%) | 341 (64.8%) |
| Smoker | 412 (35.5%) | 186 (35.4%) |
| Symptomatic | 762 (65.7%) | 359 (68.3%) |
| BMI | 30.8 ± 6.8 (13.8 to 69.4) | 30.7 ± 6.5 (13.8 to 61.7) |
| Aspirin use | 768 (66.5%) | 363 (69.1%) |
| Statin use | 580 (50.2%) | 265 (50.5%) |
| Beta-blocker use | 425 (36.8%) | 212 (40.4%) |
| QCAMaxStenosisa | 38.2 ± 32.3 (0 to 100) | 38.9 ± 32.1 (0 to 100) |
| QCANumLesionsb | 1.8 ± 2.3 (0 to 12) | 1.9 ± 2.4 (0 to 10) |
| QCAObsDiseasec | 420 (36.2%) | 192 (36.5%) |
| One-year follow-up | 1,115 (96.1%) | 507 (96.4%) |
aMaximum percent stenosis determined by core laboratory QCA
bNumber of ≥30% stenotic lesions by QCA
cPatients with ≥50% stenosis in a major coronary artery by QCA
Fig. 1Schematic of patient flow and endpoint summary. A total of 1,166 patients from the algorithm development and validation cohorts were followed up. There were 6 late clinical exclusions, resulting in a final cohort of 1,160 of whom follow-up data was available for 1,143 (96%). A total of 267 had interventional procedures or events associated with their index angiographic procedure (within 30 days). The remaining 850 patients had a total of 25 endpoints (14 interventional procedures and 11 adverse events) in the subsequent follow-up period, for a total of 292 endpoints (25%) over 1 year
Summary of procedures and events at 1-year follow-up
| Parameter | |
|---|---|
|
| 1,160 |
| Baseline procedures | |
| PCI | 203 (17.5%) |
| CABG | 70 (6%) |
| Total proceduresa | 267 (23%) |
| Baseline events | 6 (0.5%) |
| All baseline endpoints | 267 (23%) |
|
| 1,116 (96%) |
| Follow-up procedures | 14 (1.2%) |
| Follow-up events | 11 (0.9%) |
| Total follow-up endpoints | 25 (2.2%) |
| All procedures | 286 (24.7%) |
| All events | 17 (1.5%) |
| All endpointsb | 292 (25.2%) |
aSome patients had more than one procedure and four patients had events after baseline procedures
bThe total baseline number of patients is used as the denominator for all calculations as baseline endpoints greatly dominate total endpoints. Some patients had more than one endpoint
Fig. 2a Dependence of event and interventional procedure likelihood on GES in 1 year. The percentage of patients who had interventional procedures or events within 1 year of the index catheterization are shown stratified by GES. GES are divided into low (1–15), medium (16–27), and high (28–40) categories as described in the text. Results are shown for the entire cohort of 1,160 patients. b Dependence of MACE likelihood on GES in 1 year. The percentage of patients who had MACE within 1 year of index catheterization are shown stratified by GES (striped bars). The percentage of patients with revascularization or MACE >30 days post-index catheterization are shown stratified by GES (solid bars). Scores are divided as in a. There were 3, 9, and 5 events for MACE alone (striped bars) and 4, 11, and 4 revascularizations and MACE (solid bars) in the low, medium, and high GES categories
Dependence of combined procedure and MACE risk on GES
| Duration and endpoints | NPVa (%) | PPV (%) | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | ORb | 95% CI |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-month procedures and MACEc | 90 | 33 | 86 | 41 | 4.32 | 3.02–6.25 | <0.001 |
| 12-month MACE | 99 | 1.8 | 82 | 34 | 2.41 | 0.74–10.5 | 0.16d |
| ≤30-day procedures and MACEe | 91 | 33 | 87 | 40 | 4.31 | 3.00–6.38 | <0.001 |
| >30-day procedures and MACE | 99 | 3.0 | 79 | 41 | 2.59 | 0.89–9.14 | 0.082e |
aNPV, PPV, sensitivity, and specificity were calculated at a threshold of 15
bOR were calculated with a GES threshold of 15
cProcedures (PCI or CABG) and MACE (MI, stroke/TIA, death) within 12 months of the index angiography
dNot significant
eProcedures and MACE occurring within 30 days of the index angiography
Clinical characteristics of patients with subsequent events
| Patient ID | Sex | Age (years) | QCACase:Controla | QCAMax Stenosis | ClinMax Stenosis | QCANum Lesions30b | GES | Event | Days post index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C002:00400185 | Male | 83 | Control | 0 | 15 | 0 | 31 | Stroke or TIA | 328 |
| C003:00400346 | Female | 58 | Case | 70 | 0 | 1 | 10 | MIc | 121 |
| C004:00400011 | Female | 73 | Control | 39 | 50 | 1 | 17 | MI | 259 |
| C005:00400009 | Male | 50 | Case | 100 | 100 | 1 | 18 | CABG, MI, PCI | 10 |
| C014:00400055 | Male | 60 | Case | 76 | 90 | 5 | 29 | Stroke or TIA | 566d |
| C015:00400040 | Male | 51 | Case | 57 | 40 | 3 | 24 | Stroke or TIA | >180d |
| C015:00400058 | Female | 46 | Control | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | MIe | 339 |
| C015:00400064 | Male | 66 | Control | 15 | 80 | 0 | 25 | Stroke or TIA | 321 |
| C015:00400092 | Male | 49 | Control | 19 | 30 | 0 | 25 | MI | >180f |
| C015:00400193 | Female | 66 | Case | 78 | 70 | 6 | 16 | MI | 129 |
| C051:00400030 | Male | 63 | Case | 75 | 90 | 6 | 26 | MI | 1 |
| C058:00400054 | Male | 69 | Control | 33 | 40 | 2 | 25 | Death | >180f |
| C063:00400007 | Female | 76 | Case | 80 | 90 | 5 | 27 | MI | 177d |
| C068:00400065 | Male | 86 | Case | 81 | 95 | 1 | 37 | Stroke or TIA | 235d |
| C073:00400040 | Male | 73 | Control | 44 | 65 | 1 | 30 | Stroke or TIA | 172d |
| C073:00400065 | Male | 60 | Case | 63 | 40 | 3 | 14 | MI | 224 |
| C079:00400014 | Male | 78 | Case | 100 | 50 | 7 | 39 | Death | 306 |
aProspectively defined as ≥50% maximum stenosis
bNumber of lesions >30% stenosis by QCA
cDiscrepancy between clinical and core laboratory QCA reads; QCA confirmed on subsequent independent review
dThese patients had a revascularization associated with their index catheterization
eLikely vasospastic MI given underlying clinical condition and chart review
fEvent reported at 1 year follow-up without specific date
Clinical characteristics of patients with late revascularizations
| Patient ID | Sex | Age (years) | QCACase:Controla | QCAMax Stenosis | ClinMax Stenosis | QCANum Lesions30b | GES | Procedurec | Days post index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C015:00400017 | Male | 54.4 | Case | 60.37 | 70 | 3 | 26 | PCI | 341 |
| C054:00400009 | Female | 70.3 | Case | 100 | 80 | 3 | 25 | CABG | 75 |
| C015:00400060 | Male | 55.5 | Control | 36.43 | 100 | 3 | 23 | PCI | 118 |
| C055:00400036 | Female | 68.3 | Control | 24.2 | 40 | 0 | 20 | PCI | 345 |
| C068:00400058 | Female | 55.2 | Case | 100 | 99 | 8 | 3 | PCI | 347 |
| C001:00400105 | Male | 73.7 | Case | 60.7 | 90 | 2 | 32 | PCI | 70 |
| C015:00400177 | Male | 64.5 | Control | 43.19 | 50 | 2 | 26 | PCI | 246 |
| C068:00400087 | Male | 68.1 | Case | 100 | 100 | 5 | 37 | CABG | 84 |
aProspectively defined as ≥50% maximum stenosis
bNumber of lesions >30% stenosis by QCA
cEither PCI or CABG occurring without prior intervention associated with index catheterization
GES components and putative biological roles
| Term | Genes | Functions |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | IL18RAP+TNFAIP6+CASP5 | Innate immunity, apoptosis |
| IL8RB+KCNE3+TLR4+TNFRSF10C | Neutrophil activation | |
| 2 | S100A8+S100A12+CLEC4E | Neutrophil activation and necrosis |
| RPL28 (men), NCF4+AQP9 (women) | Calcification | |
| Neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (men) | ||
| Normalized neutrophil activation (women) | ||
| 3 | SLAMF7+KLRC4 | Innate immunity, NK cell activation |
| TMC8+CD3D | Normalized to T lymphocytes | |
| 4 | SPIB+CD79B | B/T cell ratio |
| TMC8+CD3D | Lymphocyte subtype | |
| 5 + 6 | AF289562+TSPAN16 (men) | Unknown function genes |
| TFCP2+HNRPF |