Joshua D Lyon1, Rong Pan, Jing Li. 1. Arizona State University, School of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering, 699 S. Mill Avenue, Tempe, AZ 85281, USA. joshua.lyon@asu.edu
Abstract
PROBLEM: Automobile crashes remain a prominent cause of death and injury for teenagers in the United States. While it is generally agreed that graduated drivers licensing (GDL) influences crash rates, it is unclear which components have the strongest effect on any specific types of crashes. METHOD: We analyze the relative effect of different stages of GDL on teenage fatal and injury crash risk via a negative binomial generalized linear model with random state effects. Overall, nighttime, and crashes with multiple teenage passengers are considered. RESULTS: The strongest effects are seen by 16-year-olds, for which a strict permit stage is associated with a 58% reduction in fatal crash risk over a lenient permit stage. Similar reductions are seen for injury crashes. The intermediate stage, involving nighttime and passenger restrictions, is associated with a 44% reduction in fatalities but has relatively little effect on injury crashes. The strongest effects are generally seen for passenger crashes, followed by nighttime, and then overall crashes. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: This study identifies stronger relationships between GDL and crash risk than has previously been discovered and captures the relative effects of permit and intermediate licensing restrictions, two high-level components of GDL which differ in intent and implementation. Copyright Â
PROBLEM: Automobile crashes remain a prominent cause of death and injury for teenagers in the United States. While it is generally agreed that graduated drivers licensing (GDL) influences crash rates, it is unclear which components have the strongest effect on any specific types of crashes. METHOD: We analyze the relative effect of different stages of GDL on teenage fatal and injury crash risk via a negative binomial generalized linear model with random state effects. Overall, nighttime, and crashes with multiple teenage passengers are considered. RESULTS: The strongest effects are seen by 16-year-olds, for which a strict permit stage is associated with a 58% reduction in fatal crash risk over a lenient permit stage. Similar reductions are seen for injury crashes. The intermediate stage, involving nighttime and passenger restrictions, is associated with a 44% reduction in fatalities but has relatively little effect on injury crashes. The strongest effects are generally seen for passenger crashes, followed by nighttime, and then overall crashes. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: This study identifies stronger relationships between GDL and crash risk than has previously been discovered and captures the relative effects of permit and intermediate licensing restrictions, two high-level components of GDL which differ in intent and implementation. Copyright Â
Authors: George C Patton; Susan M Sawyer; John S Santelli; David A Ross; Rima Afifi; Nicholas B Allen; Monika Arora; Peter Azzopardi; Wendy Baldwin; Christopher Bonell; Ritsuko Kakuma; Elissa Kennedy; Jaqueline Mahon; Terry McGovern; Ali H Mokdad; Vikram Patel; Suzanne Petroni; Nicola Reavley; Kikelomo Taiwo; Jane Waldfogel; Dakshitha Wickremarathne; Carmen Barroso; Zulfiqar Bhutta; Adesegun O Fatusi; Amitabh Mattoo; Judith Diers; Jing Fang; Jane Ferguson; Frederick Ssewamala; Russell M Viner Journal: Lancet Date: 2016-05-09 Impact factor: 79.321
Authors: Eduardo Romano; James C Fell; Kaigang Li; Bruce G Simons-Morton; Federico E Vaca Journal: Drug Alcohol Depend Date: 2020-11-23 Impact factor: 4.492
Authors: Elizabeth A Walshe; Daniel Romer; Abraham J Wyner; Shukai Cheng; Michael R Elliott; Robert Zhang; Alexander K Gonzalez; Natalie Oppenheimer; Flaura K Winston Journal: JAMA Netw Open Date: 2022-04-01
Authors: David M Notrica; Lois W Sayrs; Nidhi Krishna; Dorothy Rowe; Dawn E Jaroszewski; Lisa E McMahon Journal: J Trauma Acute Care Surg Date: 2020-06 Impact factor: 3.697