| Literature DB >> 35467733 |
Elizabeth A Walshe1, Daniel Romer2, Abraham J Wyner3, Shukai Cheng1, Michael R Elliott4,5, Robert Zhang3, Alexander K Gonzalez6, Natalie Oppenheimer1, Flaura K Winston1,7.
Abstract
Importance: Despite US graduated driver licensing laws, young novice driver crash rates remain high. Study findings suggest comprehensive license policy that mandates driver education including behind-the-wheel (BTW) training may reduce crashes postlicensure. However, only 15 states mandate BTW training. Objective: To identify differences in licensing and crash outcomes for drivers younger than 18 years who are subject to comprehensive licensing requirements (graduated driver licensing, driver education, and BTW training) vs those aged 18 to 24 years who are exempt from these requirements. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective, population-based cohort study used Ohio licensing data to define a cohort of 2018 license applicants (age 16-24 years, n = 136 643) and tracked licensed driver (n = 129 897) crash outcomes up to 12 months postlicensure. The study was conducted from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2019, and data analysis was performed from October 7, 2019, to February 11, 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Licensing examination performance and population-based, police-reported crash rates in the first 2 months and 12 months postlicensure across age groups, sex, and census tract-level sociodemographic variables were measured. Poisson regression models compared newly licensed driver crash rates, with reference to individuals licensed at 18 years, while controlling for census tract-level sociodemographic factors, time spent in the learner permit period, and licensing examination performance measures.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2022 PMID: 35467733 PMCID: PMC9039772 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.8780
Source DB: PubMed Journal: JAMA Netw Open ISSN: 2574-3805
Figure 1. Sample Derivation for RSE Outcome Analysis and Crash Outcome Analysis
GIS indicates geographical information system; RSE, road safety examination.
Characteristics of First-time Applicants
| Variable | No. (%) | Mean (SD) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | Failed first RSE | Issued a license | No. of failed RSEs before licensure | Time with learner permit before licensure, d | Driving skill test score on final passing RSE | |
| Age, y | ||||||
| All <25 | 136 643 | 40 553 (29.7) | 130 184 (95.3) | 1.20 (0.50) | 200 (101.21) | 10.92 (8.16) |
| 16 | 71 490 (52.3) | 15 466 (21.6) | 71 275 (99.7) | 1.14 (0.41) | 224 (72.53) | 9.93 (7.97) |
| 17 | 16 521 (12.1) | 5112 (30.9) | 16 267 (98.5) | 1.22 (0.53) | 206 (111.36) | 11.07 (8.12) |
| 18 | 21 301 (15.6) | 7981 (37.5) | 19 466 (91.4) | 1.26 (0.56) | 160 (119.44) | 12.42 (8.19) |
| 19-20 | 14 647 (10.7) | 6477 (44.2) | 12 521 (85.5) | 1.33 (0.65) | 169 (124.87) | 12.85 (8.22) |
| 21-24 | 12 684 (9.3) | 5517 (43.5) | 10 655 (84.0) | 1.32 (0.66) | 142 (124.84) | 12.83 (8.23) |
| Sex | ||||||
| Male | 69 488 (50.9) | 19 434 (28.0) | 66 432 (95.6) | 1.20 (0.50) | 195 (102.87) | 10.98 (8.18) |
| Female | 67 152 (49.1) | 21 118 (31.4) | 63 749 (94.9) | 1.21 (0.51) | 206 (99.11) | 10.87 (8.14) |
| Tract-level SES: income and educational level | ||||||
| Low: <10th percentile | 13 670 (10.0) | 5264 (38.5) | 12 055 (88.2) | 1.26 (0.58) | 175.11 (118.03) | 12.56 (8.14) |
| Middle: >10th-<90th percentile | 109 339 (80.0) | 31 825 (29.1) | 104 713 (95.8) | 1.20 (0.50) | 201.48 (100.48) | 10.96 (8.17) |
| High: >90th percentile | 13 634 (10.0) | 3464 (25.4) | 13 416 (98.4) | 1.19 (0.49) | 212.96 (85.59) | 9.62 (7.89) |
Abbreviations: RSE, road safety examination; SES, socioeconomic status.
For descriptive purposes, a census tract–level categorization of the SES component is shown here, but the continuous component score was used in all subsequent model analyses.
Data missing on 3 individuals.
Licensed Drivers and Total Number of Crashes per 1000 Licensed Drivers Postlicensure
| Variable | Follow-up | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 mo | 12 mo | |||
| No. of licensed drivers | Total No. of crashes per 1000 licensed drivers | No. of licensed drivers | Total No. of crashes per 1000 licensed drivers | |
| Age at licensure, y | ||||
| All <25 | 129 717 | 29.6 | 123 294 | 142.9 |
| 16 | 70 344 | 26.0 | 69 367 | 129.7 |
| 17 | 16 425 | 32.5 | 15 821 | 158.3 |
| 18 | 18 541 | 40.6 | 17 295 | 179.9 |
| 19-20 | 13 374 | 31.4 | 11 170 | 156.2 |
| 21-24 | 11 033 | 27.2 | 9641 | 130.5 |
| Sex | ||||
| Male | 66 185 | 29.4 | 63 024 | 143.1 |
| Female | 63 529 | 29.7 | 60 267 | 142.7 |
| Census tract–level SES: income and education | ||||
| Low: <10th percentile | 12 825 | 37.9 | 11 717 | 176.1 |
| Middle: >10th to <90th percentile | 103 988 | 29.7 | 99 092 | 144.6 |
| High: >90th percentile | 12 904 | 20.1 | 12 485 | 98.4 |
Abbreviation: SES, socioeconomic status.
For descriptive purposes, a census tract–level categorization of the SES component is shown here, but the continuous component score was used in all subsequent model analyses.
Figure 2. Monthly Crash Counts per 1000 Drivers in Each Age Group Over the First 12 Months Postlicensure
The oldest and youngest age groups have nearly indistinguishable trajectories. The 18-year-olds have the highest crash rates over time.
Association of Age at Licensure With Crash Outcomes at 2 and 12 Months
| Metric | Outcome of age at licensure | Outcome of age at licensure controlling for SES | Outcome of age at licensure controlling for SES and licensing variables | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Relative risk (95% CI) | Adjusted relative risk (95% CI) | Adjusted relative risk (95% CI) | ||||
|
| ||||||
| Age at licensure, y | ||||||
| 16 vs 18 | 0.64 (0.59-0.70) | <.001 | 0.69 (0.63-0.75) | <.001 | 0.73 (0.67-0.80) | <.001 |
| 17 vs 18 | 0.80 (0.72-0.90) | <.001 | 0.83 (0.75-0.93) | .001 | 0.86 (0.77-0.96) | .009 |
| 19-20 vs 18 | 0.77 (0.69-0.87) | <.001 | 0.77 (0.68-0.87) | <.001 | 0.77 (0.68-0.87) | <.001 |
| 21-24 vs 18 | 0.67 (0.59-0.76) | <.001 | 0.67 (0.58-0.76) | <.001 | 0.65 (0.56-0.74) | <.001 |
| Census tract–level SES: income and educational level (per unit change from average) | NA | NA | 0.93 (0.92-0.95) | <.001 | 0.93 (0.92-0.95) | <.001 |
| <10th percentile vs mean SES | NA | NA | 1.17 (1.13-1.21) | NA | 1.17 (1.13-1.21) | NA |
| >90th percentile vs mean SES | NA | NA | 0.81 (0.77-0.85) | NA | 0.81 (0.77-0.85) | NA |
| Time with learner permit, mo | NA | NA | NA | NA | 0.98 (0.97-0.99) | <.001 |
| No. of failed RSE attempts | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1.11 (1.04-1.18) | .003 |
| Final RSE score | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1.01 (1.00-1.01) | .005 |
|
| ||||||
| Age at licensure, y | ||||||
| 16 vs 18 | 0.72 (0.69-0.75) | <.001 | 0.77 (0.74-0.81) | <.001 | 0.81 (0.77-0.85) | <.001 |
| 17 vs 18 | 0.88 (0.83-0.93) | <.001 | 0.91 (0.87-0.96) | <.001 | 0.94 (0.89-0.99) | .02 |
| 19-20 vs 18 | 0.87 (0.82-0.92) | <.001 | 0.86 (0.81-0.92) | <.001 | 0.87 (0.82-0.92) | <.001 |
| 21-24 vs 18 | 0.73 (0.68-0.78) | <.001 | 0.72 (0.67-0.77) | <.001 | 0.72 (0.68-0.77) | <.001 |
| Census tract–level SES: income and educational level (per unit change from average) | NA | NA | 0.94 (0.93-0.95) | <.001 | 0.94 (0.93-0.95) | <.001 |
| <10th percentile vs mean SES | NA | NA | 1.15 (1.13-1.17) | NA | 1.15 (1.13-1.17) | NA |
| >90th percentile vs mean SES | NA | NA | 0.82 (0.80-0.84) | NA | 0.83 (0.81-0.85) | NA |
| Time with learner permit, mo | NA | NA | NA | NA | 0.99 (0.98-0.99) | <.001 |
| No. of failed RSE attempts | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1.08 (1.05-1.12) | <.001 |
| Final RSE score | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1.00 (1.00-1.01) | <.001 |
Abbreviations: NA, not applicable; RSE, road safety examination; SES, socioeconomic status.
Individuals aged 18 years at licensure were used as the reference group. Poisson model results with stepwise controls for SES and license variables.
Shown as an example to aid in interpretation of SES component score, which was included as a continuous variable in the model.