BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to develop a long-term model to predict mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention in both patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and those with more stable coronary disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: The American College of Cardiology Foundation CathPCI Registry data were linked to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services 100% denominator file by probabilistic matching. Preprocedure demographic and clinical variables from the CathPCI Registry were used to predict the probability of death over 3 years as recorded in the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services database. Between 2004 and 2007, 343 466 patients (66%) of 518 195 patients aged ≥65 years undergoing first percutaneous coronary intervention in the CathPCI Registry were successfully linked to Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services data. This study population was randomly divided into 60% derivation and 40% validation cohorts. Median follow-up was 15 months, with mortality of 3.0% at 30 days and 8.7%, 13.4%, and 18.7% at 1, 2, and 3 years, respectively. Twenty-four characteristics related to demographics, clinical comorbidity, prior history of disease, and indices of disease severity and acuity were identified as being associated with mortality. The C indices in the validation cohorts for patients with and without ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction were 0.79 and 0.78. The model calibrated well across a wide range of predicted probabilities. CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of the large and nationally representative CathPCI Registry, we have developed a model that has excellent discrimination, calibration, and validation to predict survival up to 3 years after percutaneous coronary intervention.
RCT Entities:
BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to develop a long-term model to predict mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention in both patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and those with more stable coronary disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: The American College of Cardiology Foundation CathPCI Registry data were linked to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services 100% denominator file by probabilistic matching. Preprocedure demographic and clinical variables from the CathPCI Registry were used to predict the probability of death over 3 years as recorded in the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services database. Between 2004 and 2007, 343 466 patients (66%) of 518 195 patients aged ≥65 years undergoing first percutaneous coronary intervention in the CathPCI Registry were successfully linked to Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services data. This study population was randomly divided into 60% derivation and 40% validation cohorts. Median follow-up was 15 months, with mortality of 3.0% at 30 days and 8.7%, 13.4%, and 18.7% at 1, 2, and 3 years, respectively. Twenty-four characteristics related to demographics, clinical comorbidity, prior history of disease, and indices of disease severity and acuity were identified as being associated with mortality. The C indices in the validation cohorts for patients with and without ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction were 0.79 and 0.78. The model calibrated well across a wide range of predicted probabilities. CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of the large and nationally representative CathPCI Registry, we have developed a model that has excellent discrimination, calibration, and validation to predict survival up to 3 years after percutaneous coronary intervention.
Authors: Eric D Peterson; David Dai; Elizabeth R DeLong; J Matthew Brennan; Mandeep Singh; Sunil V Rao; Richard E Shaw; Matthew T Roe; Kalon K L Ho; Lloyd W Klein; Ronald J Krone; William S Weintraub; Ralph G Brindis; John S Rumsfeld; John A Spertus Journal: J Am Coll Cardiol Date: 2010-05-04 Impact factor: 24.094
Authors: M Moscucci; E Kline-Rogers; D Share; M O'Donnell; A Maxwell-Eward; W L Meengs; P Kraft; A C DeFranco; J L Chambers; K Patel; J G McGinnity; K A Eagle Journal: Circulation Date: 2001-07-17 Impact factor: 29.690
Authors: G T O'Connor; D J Malenka; H Quinton; J F Robb; M A Kellett; S Shubrooks; W A Bradley; M J Hearne; M W Watkins; D E Wennberg; B Hettleman; D J O'Rourke; P D McGrath; T Ryan; P VerLee Journal: J Am Coll Cardiol Date: 1999-09 Impact factor: 24.094
Authors: Richard E Shaw; H Vernon Anderson; Ralph G Brindis; Ronald J Krone; Lloyd W Klein; Charles R McKay; Peter C Block; Leslee J Shaw; Kathleen Hewitt; William S Weintraub Journal: J Invasive Cardiol Date: 2003-10 Impact factor: 2.022
Authors: Robin Mathews; Eric D Peterson; Emily Honeycutt; Chee Tang Chin; Mark B Effron; Marjorie Zettler; Gregg C Fonarow; Timothy D Henry; Tracy Y Wang Journal: Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes Date: 2015-06-02
Authors: Edwin T Zishiri; Sarah Williams; Edmond M Cronin; Eugene H Blackstone; Stephen G Ellis; Eric E Roselli; Nicholas G Smedira; A Marc Gillinov; Jo Ann Glad; Patrick J Tchou; Steven J Szymkiewicz; Mina K Chung Journal: Circ Arrhythm Electrophysiol Date: 2012-12-28
Authors: Jason C Kovacic; Atul M Limaye; Samantha Sartori; Paul Lee; Roshan Patel; Sweta Chandela; Biana Trost; Swathi Roy; Rafael Harari; Birju Narechania; Rucha Karajgikar; Michael C Kim; Prakash Krishnan; Pedro Moreno; Usman Baber; Roxana Mehran; George Dangas; Annapoorna S Kini; Samin K Sharma Journal: Catheter Cardiovasc Interv Date: 2013-07-01 Impact factor: 2.692
Authors: Chuntao Wu; Fabian T Camacho; Spencer B King; Gary Walford; David R Holmes; Nicholas J Stamato; Peter B Berger; Samin Sharma; Jeptha P Curtis; Ferdinand J Venditti; Alice K Jacobs; Edward L Hannan Journal: Circ Cardiovasc Interv Date: 2014-01-14 Impact factor: 6.546
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