A comparison of simple and complex population models to reduce uncertainty in ecological risk assessments of chemicals: example with three species of Daphnia.

Ecological risk assessments (ERA) are mostly based on effects on survival (S) and fertility (F) of individuals. However, the protection goals are most often defined on the population or community levels. It has been argued that population models can be a useful link between the individual and the population in ERA. However, for population models to be efficiently and routinely used in ERA, the level of model complexity that is needed has to be clearly determined. In the present study, complex age classified matrix population models and simple 2-stage models were developed for three species of Daphnia. The population growth rate (λ) from the simple 2-stage model correlated strongly to the results of the complex matrix model, which included density dependence and temporary reductions in S and F. This shows that the information that can be provided by more complex models also can be relatively well predicted with the simpler model. The output of the complex matrix population models were also compared to the reductions in S that were used in the models. This was done because acute mortality is the most commonly used estimate of toxic effects. The results showed that λ from the 2-stage model correlated stronger to the endpoints of the matrix model than S did in all cases except for pulsed exposures, where S and λ correlated equally well.