Qualitative risk assessment in a data-scarce environment: a model to assess the impact of control measures on spread of African Swine Fever.

In the absence of data, qualitative risk assessment frameworks have proved useful to assess risks associated with animal health diseases. As part of a scientific opinion for the European Commission (EC) on African Swine Fever (ASF), a working group of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) assessed the risk of ASF remaining endemic in Trans Caucasus Countries (TCC) and the Russian Federation (RF) and the risk of ASF becoming endemic in the EU if disease were introduced. The aim was to develop a tool to evaluate how current control or preventive measures mitigate the risk of spread and giving decision makers the means to review how strengthening of surveillance and control measures would mitigate the risk of disease spread. Based on a generic model outlining disease introduction, spread and endemicity in a region, the impact of risk mitigation measures on spread of disease was assessed for specific risk questions. The resulting hierarchical models consisted of key steps containing several sub-steps. For each step of the risk pathways risk estimates were determined by the expert group based on existing data or through expert opinion elicitation. Risk estimates were combined using two different combination matrices, one to combine estimates of independent steps and one to combine conditional probabilities. The qualitative risk assessment indicated a moderate risk that ASF will remain endemic in current affected areas in the TCC and RF and a high risk of spread to currently unaffected areas. If introduced into the EU, ASF is likely to be controlled effectively in the production sector with high or limited biosecurity. In the free range production sector, however, there is a moderate risk of ASF becoming endemic due to wild boar contact, non-compliance with animal movement bans, and difficult access to all individual pigs upon implementation of control measures. This study demonstrated the advantages of a systematic framework to assist an expert panel to carry out a risk assessment as it helped experts to disassociate steps in the risk pathway and to overcome preconceived notions of final risk estimates. The approach presented here shows how a qualitative risk assessment framework can address animal diseases with complexity in their spread and control measures and how transparency of the resulting estimates was achieved.