| Literature DB >> 35356102 |
Valerie Allendorf1,2, Nicolai Denzin1, Franz J Conraths1, Lisa A Boden3, François Elvinger4, Ioannis Magouras5, Arjan Stegeman6, James L N Wood7, Ana Carvajal Urueña8, Katherine E F Grace9, Katharina D C Stärk10.
Abstract
Due to the zoonotic origin of SARS-Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the potential for its transmission from humans back to animals and the possibility that it might establish ongoing infection pathways in other animal species has been discussed. Cats are highly susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 and were shown experimentally to transmit the virus to other cats. Infection of cats has been widely reported. Domestic cats in COVID-19-positive households could therefore be a part of a human to animal to human transmission pathway. Here, we report the results of a qualitative risk assessment focusing on the potential of cat to human transmission in such settings. The assessment was based on evidence available by October 2021. After the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 to a household by a human, cats may become infected and infected cats may pose an additional infection risk for other members of the household. In order to assess this additional risk qualitatively, expert opinion was elicited within the framework of a modified Delphi procedure. The conclusion was that the additional risk of infection of an additional person in a household associated with keeping a domestic cat is very low to negligible, depending on the intensity of cat-to-human interactions. The separation of cats from humans suffering from SARS-CoV-2 infection should contribute to preventing further transmission.Entities:
Keywords: Cat; Delphi; One health; Risk assessment; SARS-CoV-2; Zoonosis
Year: 2022 PMID: 35356102 PMCID: PMC8950096 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2022.100381
Source DB: PubMed Journal: One Health ISSN: 2352-7714
Fig. 1Scenario tree model on the risk pathways of inter-human transmission (blue) and the additional pathways to be considered in the presence of a domestic cat (orange). (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
Qualitative descriptors of probabilities according to OIE standards [47].
| Descriptor | OIE definitions |
|---|---|
| Very high | The event occurs almost certainly. |
| High | The event occurs very often. |
| Moderate | The event occurs regularly. |
| Low | The event is rare but does occur. |
| Very low | The event is rare but cannot be excluded. |
| Negligible | The event is so rare that it does not merit to be considered. |
Translation of the degree of agreement calculated by using Leik's D into qualitative descriptors of expert agreement.
| Agreement | (1-Leik's D) |
|---|---|
| Low | < 50% |
| Medium | 50–90% |
| High | > 90% |
Uncertainties deriving from availability of published studies, based on the scale proposed by EFSA [53].
| Uncertainty | Data availability (type, amount, quality) | Data variability (consistency) |
|---|---|---|
| Low | scarce or no data available; evidence not provided in references but rather in unpublished reports, based on observation | authors report similar conclusion |
| Medium | some but no complete data available, evidence provided in small number of references | authors report conclusions that vary from each other |
| High | solid and complete data available; strong evidence provided in multiple references | authors report conclusions that vary considerably between them |
Risk combination matrix according to Gale et al. [54].
| Event 2 | Negligible | Very low | Low | Moderate | High | Very high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Event 1 | ||||||
| Negligible | negligible | negligible | negligible | negligible | negligible | negligible |
| Very low | negligible | negligible | negligible | very low | very low | very low |
| Low | negligible | negligible | very low | low | low | low |
| Moderate | negligible | very low | low | moderate | moderate | moderate |
| High | negligible | very low | low | moderate | high | high |
| Very high | negligible | very low | low | moderate | high | very high |
Matrix for combining uncertainties deriving from available evidence and degree of expert agreement according to the IPCC [55].
| Evidence → | Limited | Medium | Robust |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agreement ↓ | |||
| Low | Low | Low | Medium |
| Medium | Low | Medium | Medium |
| High | Medium | Medium | High |
Fig. 2Boxplots of the results of the first (left) and second round of expert opinion elicitation.
Final estimates and related uncertainties assigned to the steps of the risk pathways.
| Probability | Mode | „Worst case“ estimate | „Best case“ estimate | Availability data | Variability data | Agreement experts | Confidence | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Human to human | P1 | … that SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted from index person to 2nd household member under | |||||||
| P2 | … that SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted from index person to 2nd household member under | ||||||||
| Human to cat | P3 | … that SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted from index person to domestic cat under | |||||||
| P4 | … that SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted from index person to domestic cat under | ||||||||
| Cat to human | P5 | … that SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted from domestic cat to 2nd household member under | |||||||
| P6 | … that SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted from domestic cat to 2nd household member under |