[Shortage and need of physicians in Germany? Questions addressed to health services research].

The problem of shortage of physicians has been discussed controversially in Germany for years, and the different positions of the interest groups involved have not been resolved. The question of the present and anticipated future requirement of physicians is central for an appropriate and necessary medical care of the population. In the analysis, supply and demand of medical care have to be distinguished. Relatively reliable data do exist for the supply of physicians; however, the changing number of working hours that male and--in particular female--physicians are willing to contribute should be taken into consideration. Reliable data for the future demand are presently not available. Several variables (e.g., demography, disease spectrum of an aging society, medical progress, the changing rules of working hours, and the shift of medical care between hospital and practice care) depend on future developments. Considering the existing serious indicators of a growing shortage of physicians, it is recommended to put more effort into the scientific investigation of these factors. More profound data should improve the basis for decisions in health and education politics.