Spatial and temporal signatures of fragility and threshold proximity in modelled semi-arid vegetation.

Understanding the behaviour of complex environmental systems, particularly as critical thresholds are approached, is vitally important in many contexts. Among these are the moisture-limited vegetation systems in semi-arid (SA) regions of the World, which support approximately 36 per cent of the human population, maintain considerable biodiversity and which are susceptible to rapid stress-induced collapse. Change in spatially self-organized vegetation patterning has previously been proposed as a means of identifying approaching thresholds in these systems. In this paper, a newly developed cellular automata model is used to explore spatial patterning and also the temporal dynamics of SA vegetation cover. Results show, for the first time, to my knowledge, in a cellular automata model, that 'critical slowdown' (a pronounced reduction in post-perturbation recovery rates) provides clear signals of system fragility as major thresholds are approached. A consequence of slowing recovery rates is the appearance of quasi-stable population states and increased potential for perturbation-induced multi-staged population collapse. The model also predicts a non-patterned cover where environmental stress levels are high, or where more moderate stress levels are accompanied by frequent perturbations. In the context of changing climatic and environmental pressures, these results provide observable indicators of fragility and threshold proximity in SA vegetation systems that have direct relevance to management policies.