Literature DB >> 31983337

Tipping positive change.

Timothy M Lenton1.   

Abstract

Tipping points exist in social, ecological and climate systems and those systems are increasingly causally intertwined in the Anthropocene. Climate change and biosphere degradation have advanced to the point where we are already triggering damaging environmental tipping points, and to avoid worse ones ahead will require finding and triggering positive tipping points towards sustainability in coupled social, ecological and technological systems. To help with that I outline how tipping points can occur in continuous dynamical systems and in networks, the causal interactions that can occur between tipping events across different types and scales of system-including the conditions required to trigger tipping cascades, the potential for early warning signals of tipping points, and how they could inform deliberate tipping of positive change. In particular, the same methods that can provide early warning of damaging environmental tipping points can be used to detect when a socio-technical or socio-ecological system is most sensitive to being deliberately tipped in a desirable direction. I provide some example targets for such deliberate tipping of positive change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

Keywords:  Earth system; climate change; early warning; ecosystems; networks; tipping points

Mesh:

Year:  2020        PMID: 31983337      PMCID: PMC7017777          DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2019.0123

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci        ISSN: 0962-8436            Impact factor:   6.237


  45 in total

1.  Bistability of atmospheric oxygen and the Great Oxidation.

Authors:  Colin Goldblatt; Timothy M Lenton; Andrew J Watson
Journal:  Nature       Date:  2006-10-12       Impact factor: 49.962

2.  Systemic risk in banking ecosystems.

Authors:  Andrew G Haldane; Robert M May
Journal:  Nature       Date:  2011-01-20       Impact factor: 49.962

3.  Global diets link environmental sustainability and human health.

Authors:  David Tilman; Michael Clark
Journal:  Nature       Date:  2014-11-12       Impact factor: 49.962

4.  Gaia 2.0.

Authors:  Timothy M Lenton; Bruno Latour
Journal:  Science       Date:  2018-09-13       Impact factor: 47.728

5.  Marine ice sheet collapse potentially under way for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica.

Authors:  Ian Joughin; Benjamin E Smith; Brooke Medley
Journal:  Science       Date:  2014-05-12       Impact factor: 47.728

6.  Predicting tipping points in mutualistic networks through dimension reduction.

Authors:  Junjie Jiang; Zi-Gang Huang; Thomas P Seager; Wei Lin; Celso Grebogi; Alan Hastings; Ying-Cheng Lai
Journal:  Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A       Date:  2018-01-08       Impact factor: 11.205

7.  A morphometric analysis of vegetation patterns in dryland ecosystems.

Authors:  Luke Mander; Stefan C Dekker; Mao Li; Washington Mio; Surangi W Punyasena; Timothy M Lenton
Journal:  R Soc Open Sci       Date:  2017-02-15       Impact factor: 2.963

8.  Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model.

Authors:  Chris A Boulton; Lesley C Allison; Timothy M Lenton
Journal:  Nat Commun       Date:  2014-12-08       Impact factor: 14.919

9.  Quantifying resilience of humans and other animals.

Authors:  Marten Scheffer; J Elizabeth Bolhuis; Denny Borsboom; Timothy G Buchman; Sanne M W Gijzel; Dave Goulson; Jan E Kammenga; Bas Kemp; Ingrid A van de Leemput; Simon Levin; Carmel Mary Martin; René J F Melis; Egbert H van Nes; L Michael Romero; Marcel G M Olde Rikkert
Journal:  Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A       Date:  2018-10-29       Impact factor: 11.205

10.  Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene.

Authors:  Will Steffen; Johan Rockström; Katherine Richardson; Timothy M Lenton; Carl Folke; Diana Liverman; Colin P Summerhayes; Anthony D Barnosky; Sarah E Cornell; Michel Crucifix; Jonathan F Donges; Ingo Fetzer; Steven J Lade; Marten Scheffer; Ricarda Winkelmann; Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
Journal:  Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A       Date:  2018-08-06       Impact factor: 11.205

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  9 in total

1.  Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions.

Authors:  Yadvinder Malhi; Janet Franklin; Nathalie Seddon; Martin Solan; Monica G Turner; Christopher B Field; Nancy Knowlton
Journal:  Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci       Date:  2020-01-27       Impact factor: 6.237

Review 2.  Scaling up our understanding of tipping points.

Authors:  Sonia Kéfi; Camille Saade; Eric L Berlow; Juliano S Cabral; Emanuel A Fronhofer
Journal:  Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci       Date:  2022-06-27       Impact factor: 6.671

3.  Five Lessons from COVID-19 for Advancing Climate Change Mitigation.

Authors:  David Klenert; Franziska Funke; Linus Mattauch; Brian O'Callaghan
Journal:  Environ Resour Econ (Dordr)       Date:  2020-08-03

Review 4.  Transforming Sustainability Science to Generate Positive Social and Environmental Change Globally.

Authors:  Paul Shrivastava; Mark Stafford Smith; Karen O'Brien; Laszlo Zsolnai
Journal:  One Earth       Date:  2020-04-24

5.  Evolving the narrative for protecting a rapidly changing ocean, post-COVID-19.

Authors:  D Laffoley; J M Baxter; D J Amon; J Claudet; J M Hall-Spencer; K Grorud-Colvert; L A Levin; P C Reid; A D Rogers; M L Taylor; L C Woodall; N F Andersen
Journal:  Aquat Conserv       Date:  2020-11-25       Impact factor: 3.254

6.  Lessons from COVID-19 for managing transboundary climate risks and building resilience.

Authors:  Andrew K Ringsmuth; Ilona M Otto; Bart van den Hurk; Glada Lahn; Christopher P O Reyer; Timothy R Carter; Piotr Magnuszewski; Irene Monasterolo; Jeroen C J H Aerts; Magnus Benzie; Emanuele Campiglio; Stefan Fronzek; Franziska Gaupp; Lukasz Jarzabek; Richard J T Klein; Hanne Knaepen; Reinhard Mechler; Jaroslav Mysiak; Jana Sillmann; Dana Stuparu; Chris West
Journal:  Clim Risk Manag       Date:  2022-01-11

7.  Tipping Cascades in a Multi-patch System with Noise and Spatial Coupling.

Authors:  Abhishek Mallela; Alan Hastings
Journal:  Bull Math Biol       Date:  2021-09-30       Impact factor: 1.758

8.  Earth stewardship: Shaping a sustainable future through interacting policy and norm shifts.

Authors:  F Stuart Chapin; Elke U Weber; Elena M Bennett; Reinette Biggs; Jeroen van den Bergh; W Neil Adger; Anne-Sophie Crépin; Stephen Polasky; Carl Folke; Marten Scheffer; Kathleen Segerson; John M Anderies; Scott Barrett; Juan-Camilo Cardenas; Stephen R Carpenter; Joern Fischer; Nils Kautsky; Simon A Levin; Jason F Shogren; Brian Walker; James Wilen; Aart de Zeeuw
Journal:  Ambio       Date:  2022-04-05       Impact factor: 6.943

9.  Information interventions can increase technology adoption through information network restructuring.

Authors:  D Cale Reeves; Matthew Haley; Amara Uyanna; Varun Rai
Journal:  iScience       Date:  2022-07-20
  9 in total

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