Binod Nepal1, Laurie Brown, Geetha Ranmuthugala. 1. National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, University of Canberra, ACT, Australia. binod.nepal@natsem.canberra.edu.au
Abstract
AIM: To model impact of modifiable risk behaviour on dementia prevalence among the Australian population aged 45 years and over. METHODS: A group-based computer model was constructed to estimate the impact of modifying risk behaviour on dementia prevalence. RESULTS: Based on population ageing, the number of people aged 45 years and over living with dementia is expected to triple from 187 000 in 2006 to 650 000 by 2051. A drop in proportion ever smokers by 5% every 5 years would lower population with dementia by 2% in 2051. If obesity rate drops by 5%, dementia prevalence would be lower by 6%. A decline in physical inactivity rate by 5% would reduce dementia by 11%. Persistence of the growing trend in obesity and physical inactivity would result in a larger than expected dementia epidemic. CONCLUSION: Improving the risk behaviours has potential to make a substantial reduction in the number of people with dementia.
AIM: To model impact of modifiable risk behaviour on dementia prevalence among the Australian population aged 45 years and over. METHODS: A group-based computer model was constructed to estimate the impact of modifying risk behaviour on dementia prevalence. RESULTS: Based on population ageing, the number of people aged 45 years and over living with dementia is expected to triple from 187 000 in 2006 to 650 000 by 2051. A drop in proportion ever smokers by 5% every 5 years would lower population with dementia by 2% in 2051. If obesity rate drops by 5%, dementia prevalence would be lower by 6%. A decline in physical inactivity rate by 5% would reduce dementia by 11%. Persistence of the growing trend in obesity and physical inactivity would result in a larger than expected dementia epidemic. CONCLUSION: Improving the risk behaviours has potential to make a substantial reduction in the number of people with dementia.
Authors: Catherine A O'Donnell; Susan Browne; Maria Pierce; Alex McConnachie; Kay Deckers; Martin P J van Boxtel; Valeria Manera; Sebastian Köhler; Muriel Redmond; Frans R J Verhey; Marjan van den Akker; Kevin Power; Kate Irving Journal: Pilot Feasibility Stud Date: 2015-11-17
Authors: Sara Ahmadi-Abhari; Maria Guzman-Castillo; Piotr Bandosz; Martin J Shipley; Graciela Muniz-Terrera; Archana Singh-Manoux; Mika Kivimäki; Andrew Steptoe; Simon Capewell; Martin O'Flaherty; Eric J Brunner Journal: BMJ Date: 2017-07-05