Comparison of mortality and incidence solid cancer risk after radiation exposure in the Techa River Cohort.

In the present paper, analysis of solid cancer mortality and incidence risk after radiation exposure in the Techa River Cohort in the Southern Urals region of Russia is described. Residents along the Techa River received protracted exposure to ionizing radiation in the 1950s due to the releases of radioactive materials from the Mayak Production Association. The current follow-up through December 2003 includes individuals exposed on the Techa riverside within the Chelyabinsk and Kurgan oblasts using mortality data, and within the Chelyabinsk oblast using incidence data. The analysis was performed by means of the biologically based two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model and conventional excess relative risk models. For the mortality and incidence cohorts, central estimates of the excess relative risk per dose of 0.85 Gy(-1) (95% CI 0.36; 1.38) and 0.91 Gy(-1) (95% CI 0.35; 1.52) were found, respectively. For both the mortality and incidence cohorts, the best description of the radiation risk was achieved with the same TSCE model including a lifelong radiation effect on the promotion rate of initiated cells. An increase in the excess risk with attained age was observed, whereas no significant change of risk with age at exposure was seen. Direct comparison of the mortality and incidence cohorts showed that the excess relative risk estimates agreed very well in both cohorts, as did the excess absolute risk and the hazard after correction for the different background rates.