Mechanistic study on lung cancer mortality after radon exposure in the Wismut cohort supports important role of clonal expansion in lung carcinogenesis.

Lung cancer mortality after radon exposure in the Wismut cohort was analyzed using the two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model. A total of 2996 lung cancer deaths among the 58,695 male workers were observed during the follow-up period between 1946 and 2003. Adjustment to silica exposure was performed to find a more accurate estimation of the risk of radon exposure. An additional analysis with the descriptive excess relative risk (ERR) model was carried out for comparison. The TSCE model that best describes the data is nonlinear in the clonal expansion with radon exposure and has a saturation level at an exposure rate of [Formula: see text]. The excess relative risk decreases with age and shows an inverse exposure rate effect. In comparison with the ERR model, the TSCE model predicts a considerably larger risk for low exposures rates below [Formula: see text]. Comparison to other mechanistic studies of lung cancer after exposure to alpha particles using the TSCE model reveals an extraordinary consistency in the main features of the exposure response, given the diversity in the characteristics of the cohorts and the exposure across different studies. This suggests that a nonlinear response mechanism in the clonal expansion, with some level of saturation at large exposure rates, may be playing a crucial role in the development of lung cancer after alpha particle irradiation.