Riding across the selection landscape: fitness consequences of annual variation in reproductive characteristics.

Evolutionary models estimating phenotypic selection in character size usually assume that the character is invariant across reproductive bouts. We show that variation in the size of reproductive traits may be large over multiple events and can influence fitness in organisms where these traits are produced anew each season. With data from populations of two orchid species, Caladenia valida and Tolumnia variegata, we used Bayesian statistics to investigate the effect on the distribution in fitness of individuals when the fitness landscape is not flat and when characters vary across reproductive bouts. Inconsistency in character size across reproductive periods within an individual increases the uncertainty of mean fitness and, consequently, the uncertainty in individual fitness. The trajectory of selection is likely to be muddled as a consequence of variation in morphology of individuals across reproductive bouts. The frequency and amplitude of such changes will certainly affect the dynamics between selection and genetic drift.