Estimating the probability of allelic drop-out of STR alleles in forensic genetics.

In crime cases with available DNA evidence, the amount of DNA is often sparse due to the setting of the crime. In such cases, allelic drop-out of one or more true alleles in STR typing is possible. We present a statistical model for estimating the per locus and overall probability of allelic drop-out using the results of all STR loci in the case sample as reference. The methodology of logistic regression is appropriate for this analysis, and we demonstrate how to incorporate this in a forensic genetic framework.