Healthy skepticism: assessing realistic model performance.

Although the development of computational models to aid drug discovery has become an integral part of pharmaceutical research, the application of these models often fails to produce the expected impact on productivity. One reason for this may be that the expected performance of many models is simply not supported by the underlying data, because of often neglected effects of assay and prediction errors on the reliability of the predicted outcome. Another significant challenge to realizing the full potential of computational models is their integration into prospective medicinal chemistry campaigns. This article will analyze the impact of assay and prediction error on model quality, and explore scenarios where computational models can expect to have a significant influence on drug discovery research.