Fracture rates as a function of forearm mineral density in normal postmenopausal women: retrospective and prospective data.

Fracture histories were obtained from 492 normal postmenopausal women in 1983 and again in 1988, and related to forearm mineral content and density determined in 1983. All peripheral fractures, except those attributable to road traffic accidents, were included. There was only one hip fracture in the series. The total number of postmenopausal fractures was 183 in 149 subjects. In both the retrospective and prospective studies, fracture rates were inversely related to bone status and more significantly to bone density than to bone mass. In the pooled data, the fracture rate was three times as high in women with bone densities more than 4 standard deviations below the young normal mean as in those with bone densities above the mean. On logistic regression, the adjusted relative risk of fracture (odds ratio) in subjects more than 4 standard deviations below the young mean compared with those above the mean was 5.5 (2.7-11.4).