Identification and comparison of stochastic metabolic/hemodynamic models (sMHM) for the generation of the BOLD signal.

This paper extends a previously formulated deterministic metabolic/hemodynamic model for the generation of blood oxygenated level dependent (BOLD) responses to include both physiological and observation stochastic components (sMHM). This adds a degree of flexibility when fitting the model to actual data by accounting for un-modelled activity. We then show how the innovation method can be used to estimate unobserved metabolic/hemodynamic as well as vascular variables of the sMHM, from simulated and actual BOLD data. The proposed estimation method allowed for doing model comparison by calculating the model's AIC and BIC. This methodology was then used to select between different neurovascular coupling assumptions underlying sMHM. The proposed framework was first validated on simulations and then applied to BOLD data from a motor task experiment. The models under comparison in the analysis of the actual data considered that vascular response was coupled to: (I) inhibition, (II) excitation, (III) both excitation and inhibition. Data was best described by model II, although model III was also supported.