Incipient allochronic speciation due to non-selective assortative mating by flowering time, mutation and genetic drift.

We model the evolution of flowering time using a multilocus quantitative genetic model with non-selective assortative mating and mutation to investigate incipient allochronic speciation in a finite population. For quantitative characters with evolutionary parameters satisfying empirical observations and two approximate inequalities that we derived, disjunct clusters in the population flowering phenology originated within a few thousand generations in the absence of disruptive natural or sexual selection. Our simulations and the conditions we derived showed that cluster formation was promoted by limited population size, high mutational variance of flowering time, short individual flowering phenology and a long flowering season. By contrast, cluster formation was hindered by inbreeding depression, stabilizing selection and pollinator limitation. Our results suggest that incipient allochronic speciation in populations of limited size (satisfying two inequalities) could be a common phenomenon.