Quantitative assessment of the likelihood of the introduction of classical swine fever virus into the Danish swine population.

Classical swine fever virus (CSFV) is a major infectious-disease agent of livestock and causes production losses through increased morbidity and mortality, particularly of young pigs. We identified the pathways for introduction of CSFV into Denmark and assessed the annual probability of introduction (based on a US Department of Agriculture model). We developed pathways based on material from scientific articles, reports from veterinary agencies and custom officers, and consultations with experts in the field. Returning livestock trucks and legal meat imports were the most important pathways for CSFV introduction to Denmark from other EU states with predicted overall likelihood of one or more introductions of CSFV within a median of 130 years (46-280) provided mitigating steps, such as cleaning trucks, were maintained to a very high standard. The likelihood would increase dramatically if these activities were abandoned: one or more introductions within a median of 5.2 years (2-14). The predicted risks from live-animal imports and semen were extremely low given the very few imports of these products. The most important countries for Denmark's CSFV risk are Germany and the Netherlands, though this risk is again predicted to be dramatically reduced as long as mitigating activities are maintained. We predicted the risk from illegal movements of pork into Denmark to be low because little pork enters through this route and only a small fraction of this pork would be fed to pigs.