Identifying high risk groups and quantifying absolute risk of cancer after kidney transplantation: a cohort study of 15,183 recipients.

Transplant recipients have increased cancer risk, but data on risk variation across different patient groups are sparse. Rates and standardized rate ratios (SRR) of cancer (all sites, excluding nonmelanocytic skin and lip cancer) compared to the general population were calculated, using Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry data. Within the transplant population, risk factors were identified (hazard ratios: HR; 95% CI) and absolute risk estimated for recipient groups. A total of 1642 (10.8%) of 15 183 recipients developed cancer. Risk was inversely related to age (SRR 15-30 children, 2 if >65 years). Females aged 25-29 had rates equivalent to women aged 55-59 from the general population. Age trend for lymphoma, colorectal and breast risk was similar; melanoma showed less variability across ages, prostate showed no risk increase. Within the transplanted population, risk was affected by age differently for each sex (p = 0.007), elevated by prior malignancy (HR 1.40; 1.03-1.89), white race (HR 1.36; 1.12-1.89), but reduced by diabetic end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) (HR 0.67; 0.50-0.89). Cancer rates in kidney recipients are similar to nontransplanted people 20-30 years older, but absolute risk differs across patient groups. Men aged 45-54 surviving 10 years have cancer risks varying from 1 in 13 (non-white, no prior cancer, diabetic ESKD) to 1 in 5 (white, prior cancer, other ESKD).