Molecular contingencies: reinforcement probability.

Pigeons obtained food by responding in a discrete-trials two-choice probability-learning experiment involving temporal stimuli. A given response alternative, a left- or right-key peck, had 11 associated reinforcement probabilities within each session. Reinforcement probability for a choice was an increasing or a decreasing function of the time interval immediately preceding the choice. The 11 equiprobable temporal stimuli ranged from 1 to 11 sec in 1-sec classes. Preference tended to deviate from probability matching in the direction of maximizing; i.e., the percentage of choices of the preferred response alternative tended to exceed the probability of reinforcement for that alternative. This result was qualitatively consistent with probability-learning experiments using visual stimuli. The result is consistent with a molecular analysis of operant behavior and poses a difficulty for molar theories holding that local variations in reinforcement probability may safely be disregarded in the analysis of behavior maintained by operant paradigms.