Quantitative risk assessment case study: smuggled meats as disease vectors.

Outbreaks of foot and mouth disease (FMD), African swine fever (ASF), classical swine fever (CSF) and swine vesicular disease (SVD) can cause significant economic and social costs and severe trade limitations. A number of commodities may be contaminated with these hazards, including meat and meat products derived from infected animals. Great Britain (GB) enforces a number of regulations to prevent the importation of such pathogens. However, the illegal importation of meat provides a route by which controls may be circumvented and pathogens imported. This paper discusses a series of risk assessments examining the disease risk to the GB livestock population of FMD, CSF, ASF and SVD from the illegal importation of any meat product from any region in the world. This paper describes the development of a quantitative risk assessment model designed to identify the major contributors to this risk, and discusses the challenges posed when undertaking such complex risk assessments.