Semiquantitative human papillomavirus type 16 viral load and the prospective risk of cervical precancer and cancer.

We examined whether higher human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16) viral load predicted risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 3 (CIN3) or cancer (together termed > or =CIN3) within a cohort of 20,810 women followed for 10 years with cytologic screening. Semiquantitative viral load for HPV16 was measured on baseline cervicovaginal specimens using a type-specific hybridization probe test with signal amplification. An increased risk of > or =CIN3 associated with higher HPV16 viral load was found only among cytologically negative women in early follow-up, suggesting that these cases were related to the detection of prevalent lesions missed at baseline. Women with higher HPV16 viral load were more likely to undergo ablative treatment during follow-up than those with lower viral load (P(trend) = 0.008), possibly diminishing any additional risk for > or =CIN3 attributable to higher HPV16 viral loads.