Hospital-treated minimal-trauma rib fractures in elderly Finns: long-term trends and projections for the future.

We determined the current trends in the number and incidence of hospital-treated minimal-trauma rib fractures (low- to moderate-energy traumas typically caused by a fall from standing height or less) in Finnish elderly people by collecting from the National Hospital Discharge Register all patients 60 years of age or more who were admitted to hospitals in 1970-2001 for primary treatment of such fractures. The number and incidence (per 100,000 persons) of these fractures clearly increased from 268 (number) and 41 (incidence) in 1970 to 737 and 70 in 2001, while in younger patients (aged 20-49 years) the trend was decreasing, the corresponding numbers being 194 and 10 in 1970, and 153 and 7 in 2001. In the elderly Finns, also the age-adjusted incidence of these hospital-admitted rib fractures showed an increase, from 37 (1970) to 51 (2001) in women, and from 63 to 77 in men. In women aged 80 years and over, the age-specific incidence of fracture increased from 88 to 186, while in the other age groups only slight secular changes were found. If the above-described trends continue, the number of elderly Finns admitted to a hospital due to a rib fracture will more than double in next three decades.