The future supply of family physicians: implications for rural America.

Throughout the past century rural health care has been dependent upon general practitioners (GPs) and their successors, family physicians (FPs). Only FPs and GPs have practiced in rural areas in proportion to the population, then and now. As specialization occurred, numbers of GPs declined and physician shortages developed in rural areas. The creation of family practice residencies in the 1970s halted this decline, but rural shortages persist today. During the 1990s the number of allopathic and osteopathic FP residency graduates rose 54 percent. At the same time, the percentage of women enrolled in these residencies increased to 46 percent, and women have been less likely than men to select rural practice. We project that if current numbers of graduates continue, the nonmetropolitan FP/GP-to-population ratio will increase 17 percent by the year 2020. However, today, medical students' interest in primary care residencies (including family practice) is declining precipitously. If numbers of FP graduates return to 1993 levels, the density of FPs in rural America and in the nation as a whole will decline after 2010.