Importance of plasma leptin in predicting future weight gain in obese children: a two-and-a-half-year longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether relatively low leptin levels predict changes in adiposity in prepubertal and pubertal obese children. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: In a biracial cohort of 68 obese children (33 male and 35 female; 46 Caucasians and 22 African-Americans, age range 7-18 y), we measured at baseline fasting insulin and leptin levels, height and weight and calculated body mass index (kg/m(2)) and expressed body mass index as (BMI) Z-score. After a 2.5-y follow-up, anthropometric measurements were repeated and changes in weight gain were calculated as changes in BMI Z-score.
RESULTS: At baseline obese preadolescent boys and girls had similar age and BMI Z-score, fasting insulin and leptin levels. After an average follow-up of 2.5 y, mean weight change calculated by changes in BMI Z-score from baseline was similar in both groups. In obese adolescent boys and girls at baseline, no significant gender differences were observed for BMI Z-score and insulin levels. In contrast, plasma leptin levels were significantly higher in obese girls compared with obese adolescent boys. At follow-up, there was no significant difference in change in BMI Z-score between obese boys and girls. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that high basal leptin levels were positively associated with greater changes in BMI Z-score only in girls (r(2)=0.18, P<0.02), after adjusting for basal BMI Z-score, Tanner stage, years of follow-up and basal insulin. High basal leptin levels in girls explained 18% of the weight gain.
CONCLUSION: High leptin levels are associated with excessive future weight gain only in girls.