Modeling yeast spoilage in cold-filled ready-to-drink beverages with Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Zygosaccharomyces bailii, and Candida lipolytica.

Mathematical models were developed to predict the probability of yeast spoilage of cold-filled ready-to-drink beverages as a function of beverage formulation. A Box-Behnken experimental design included five variables, each at three levels: pH (2.8, 3.3, and 3.8), titratable acidity (0.20, 0.40, and 0.60%), sugar content (8.0, 12.0, and 16.0 degrees Brix), sodium benzoate concentration (100, 225, and 350 ppm), and potassium sorbate concentration (100, 225, and 350 ppm). Duplicate samples were inoculated with a yeast cocktail (100 microl/50 ml) consisting of equal proportions of Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Zygosaccharomyces bailii, and Candida lipolytica (approximately 5.0 x 10(4) CFU/ml each). The inoculated samples were plated on malt extract agar after 0, 1, 2, 4, 6, and 8 weeks. Logistic regression was used to create the predictive models. The pH and sodium benzoate and potassium sorbate concentrations were found to be significant factors controlling the probability of yeast growth. Interaction terms for pH and each preservative were also significant in the predictive model. Neither the titratable acidity nor the sugar content of the model beverages was a significant predictor of yeast growth in the ranges tested.